Ray Dalio

Factual · Philosophy, ethics and society

“Like in World War II, Japan, when we — when there was the rise of Japan in there, they were cut-off from oil, they were cut-off from rubber, and they were then cut-off from capital.”

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, interviewee · 25 October 2020 · Transcript: Ray Dalio - The Big Picture (Ritholtz)

Dalio said that, as in World War II, when there was the rise of Japan, Japan was cut off from oil, from rubber and then from capital.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

Judge the historical substance as of 2020-10-25. The claim is that, around the rise of Japan before and during World War II, Japan was cut off from oil, from rubber and from capital. True: the historical record shows that the US and allied powers restricted or embargoed Japan's access to oil, restricted its access to rubber or related strategic raw materials, and froze or blocked its financial assets or access to capital (e.g., the July 1941 asset freeze, the 1941 oil embargo, and export controls). Mostly true: all three cut-offs happened, but the order ('then cut off from capital') is wrong, or the rubber restriction was partial rather than a full cut-off. Mixed: only two of the three cut-offs are supported. Mostly false: only one is supported, or the measures were much milder than 'cut off'. False: none of these cut-offs took place.

Evidence

1. Oil Dependence and U.S. Foreign Policy | Council on Foreign Relations Council on Foreign Relations · 27 April 2017

   “In response, the U.S. government imposes controls on oil exports to Japan, effectively cutting off oil supplies in the summer of 1941.”

2. PRESIDENT FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT'S EXECUTIVE ORDER FREEZING JAPANESE AND CHINESE ASSETS IN THE UNITED STATES ibiblio (Politics and Hist. archive; reprints New York Times text of the 26 July 1941 report) · 25 July 1941

   “he has today issued an Executive Order freezing Japanese assets in the United States in the same manner in which assets of various European countries were frozen on June 14, 1941.”

3. Foreign Relations of the United States, Diplomatic Papers, 1941, The Far East, Volume IV U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian · 22 November 1941

   “The control has immobilized Japanese deposits in the United States.”

4. 22. World War II The American Yawp (collaborative academic US history textbook) · 19 August 2014

   “In 1939 the United States dissolved its trade treaties with Japan and the following year cut off supplies of war materials by embargoing oil, steel, rubber, and other vital goods.”

Reasoning

E4, an academic US history text, says that in the year after 1939 the US embargoed oil, steel, rubber and other vital goods to Japan, which supports both the oil and rubber cut-offs. E1 (CFR) says US export controls effectively cut off Japan's oil supplies in summer 1941. E2 and E3 record the July 1941 executive order freezing Japanese assets, which immobilized Japanese deposits in the United States. All three cut-offs are supported, and the asset freeze came after the 1940 embargoes, which broadly fits the order Dalio described.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “Dalio said that, as in World War II, when there was the rise of Japan, Japan was cut off from oil, from rubber and then from capital.” (said 25 October 2020). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_d325310cfc9c, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d325310cfc9c