Ray Dalio

Factual · Field building and careers

“22 percent of the high school students — one in five, in other words — are disengaged or disconnected”

Ray Dalio, interviewee · 25 October 2020 · Transcript: Ray Dalio - The Big Picture (Ritholtz)

In Connecticut, 22 percent of high school students (one in five) are disengaged or disconnected from school.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

The claim is that about 22% of Connecticut high school students (roughly one in five) are disengaged or disconnected from school. Judge it against the data available as of 2020-10-25, mainly the Dalio Foundation / Connecticut RISE / Dalio Education analyses, CT State Department of Education attendance and graduation data, and related reports that define 'disengaged' (for example chronically absent or failing) and 'disconnected' (dropped out or not in school/work). True: such a source puts the Connecticut high school student share at about 20–24%. Mostly true: the share falls between 18% and 26%, or the figure is right but covers a slightly different group (for example grades 9–12 versus ages 14–18). Mixed: the figure matches only a broader or different measure (for example all youth aged 16–24 rather than high school students), or the sources disagree substantially. Mostly false: the real share is far from 22% (below 15% or above 30%), or the 22% belongs to some other population or place and was misapplied. False: the data show a clearly different figure (for example under 10%), and no basis for 22% can be found.

Evidence

1. [PDF] 10-Year Youth Development Social Investment Strategy October 2020 - Connecticut Opportunity Project Connecticut Opportunity Project (CTOP) · October 2020 Own record

   “Untapped Potential revealed that 39,000 high school-aged Connecticut youth – more than one in five – are disengaged or disconnected.”

2. [PDF] 10-Year Youth Development Social Investment Strategy October 2020 - Connecticut Opportunity Project Connecticut Opportunity Project (CTOP) · October 2020 Own record

   “Disengaged youth are defined as those showing one or more indicators of being at risk of dropping out of high school (including chronic absenteeism, 2+ course failures, and/or 2+ suspensions).”

3. [PDF] 10-Year Youth Development Social Investment Strategy October 2020 - Connecticut Opportunity Project Connecticut Opportunity Project (CTOP) · October 2020 Own record

   “More than one in five high school students are disengaged or disconnected from school and opportunity in Connecticut.”

4. 10-Year Youth Development Social Investment Strategy Connecticut Opportunity Project (CTOP) · October 2020 Own record

   “More than one in five high school students are disengaged or disconnected from school and opportunity in Connecticut.”

5. 10-Year Youth Development Social Investment Strategy Connecticut Opportunity Project (CTOP) · October 2020 Own record

   “Untapped Potential revealed that 39,000 high school-aged Connecticut youth – more than one in five – are disengaged or disconnected.”

6. 10-Year Youth Development Social Investment Strategy Connecticut Opportunity Project (CTOP) · October 2020 Own record

   “Disengaged youth are defined as those showing one or more indicators of being at risk of dropping out of high school (including chronic absenteeism, 2+ course failures, and/or 2+ suspensions).”

7. Study: 9th and 10th Grades Offer Key Chance to Re-Engage Disengaged Students Education Week · 5 October 2016

   “They found 39,000 disengaged or disconnected young people in Connecticut, a number equivalent to 22 percent of its high school enrollment.”

8. Study: 9th and 10th Grades Offer Key Chance to Re-Engage Disengaged Students Education Week · 5 October 2016

   “The researchers defined disengaged youth as those who miss 15 percent (about 25 days) or more of school, fail two or more courses, or are suspended twice (or are expelled or jailed) in one school year.”

9. Billionaire Education Philanthropist Barbara Dalio Isn’t Giving Up on Disengaged Students Inside Philanthropy · 11 October 2022

   “found that, in the 2014–2015 school year, there were 39,000 disengaged and disconnected young people of high school age in Connecticut, “a figure that is equivalent to 22% of high school enrollment in the state.””

10. [PDF] Untapped potential - EdSight Parthenon-EY (Ernst & Young LLP) for the Dalio Foundation; hosted on EdSight (Connecticut State Department of Education) · September 2016 Own record

    “Disconnected youth have not received a high school diploma or equivalent and are not enrolled in high school despite being 21 or younger.”

Reasoning

Independent reports on the Dalio Foundation's Untapped Potential study (E7, E9) say it found 39,000 disengaged or disconnected high-school-age young people in Connecticut in 2014–15, a number equal to 22% of the state's high school enrollment. That matches the claimed 22%, or one in five. The study counts high-school-age youth, though, not only enrolled students: its "disconnected" group is young people who are not enrolled and have no diploma (E10). So the 22% is a count expressed as a share of enrollment rather than a share of current students, which is a slightly different group from the one the claim names.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “In Connecticut, 22 percent of high school students (one in five) are disengaged or disconnected from school.” (said 25 October 2020). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_6482f89c35bc, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6482f89c35bc