Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
77 71 83 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
72 56 86
All types combined: 76 (likely 71 to 82, high confidence), from 91 claims: 80 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Ray Dalio's claims
34 claims
“one-third of our debt is held by foreigners, so that’s a different thing.”
Ray Dalio, interviewee 9 May 2026 Interesting Times: Ray Dalio's Theory of American Decline (Transcript) (Singju Post)
About one-third of US debt is held by foreigners.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
The second judge said mixed; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
'About one-third' is judged as roughly 28–38%. The measure is the share of US federal debt held by foreign (and international) holders, as of the latest data available in May 2026. True: foreign holdings divided by debt held by the public, or by total debt, falls within about 28–38% on the basis plausibly meant (debt held by the public). Mostly true: the share is about 25–28% or 38–40% on that basis, or it fits only on one of the two bases (public or total debt). Mixed: the share is about one-third on one basis and clearly off on the other (e.g. about 30% of public debt but about 24% of total). Mostly false: the share is about 20–25% on the most favourable basis, or it was about one-third only in the past (around 2008–2014) and is presented as current. False: below about 20% or above about 45% on every reasonable basis.
Evidence
- Q&A: Gross Debt Versus Debt Held by the Public | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget · 19 March 2026
“Of debt held by the public, about 33% is owned by foreign entities, roughly 53% by private and public domestic entities, and about 14% by the Federal Reserve.”
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 Congressional Budget Office · 11 February 2026
“Of the $30.2 trillion in federal debt held by the public as of September 30, 2025, roughly 70 percent was held by domestic entities and roughly 30 percent was held by foreign investors”
- What shifting Treasury demand means now | State Street State Street Global Advisors · 4 October 2026
“Foreign investors held about $9.2 trillion of federal debt at the end of 2025, equal to 31% of publicly held debt”
- Q&A: Gross Debt Versus Debt Held by the Public | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget · 19 March 2026
“As of today, the gross debt is $39.0 trillion.”
Reasoning
Independent sources put foreign holdings at about 30–33% of federal debt held by the public. CBO says roughly 30% as of 30 September 2025 (E2), State Street says 31% at the end of 2025 (E3), and CRFB says about 33% in March 2026 (E1). All three fall within the 28–38% range on the public-debt basis, which the criteria name as the basis plausibly meant. Measured against gross debt of $39.0 trillion (E4), the $9.2 trillion of foreign holdings is about 24%. The criteria's example for 'mixed' describes this kind of split, which makes this a borderline call between 'true' and 'mixed'. I chose 'true' because the criteria's first test accepts a share in range on the plausibly meant public-debt basis.
Cite this claim
Ray Dalio, “About one-third of US debt is held by foreigners.” (said 9 May 2026). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_73a9f6646438, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_73a9f6646438
Claims without a verdict
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