ClaimsPeople

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is an author and Project Syndicate columnist who is Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Professor Emeritus at NYU Stern, widely known as 'Dr. Doom'.

294 claims collected, 146 researched, 66 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 64 80

    Medium confidence, 48 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2006 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 29 unresolvable.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    40 27 53

    Medium confidence, 18 predictions resolved. From 9 documents, 2006 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable. 5 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 63 (likely 56 to 70, high confidence), from 66 claims: 48 factual claims, 18 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nouriel Roubini's claims

6 claims

6 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly false Prediction 27 Oct 2023 US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023). Prediction · 27 Oct 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 28 Oct 2022 Central banks, starting with the Bank of England, will wimp out on tightening, causing inflation to go above 2%. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 13 Sep 2018 Unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage the next downturn around 2020. Prediction · 13 Sep 2018 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
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Nouriel Roubini

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Prediction Economics and markets

“As I predicted in early September in an interview with Bloomberg”

Nouriel Roubini, economist, on X 27 October 2023 Post by @Nouriel on X, 2023-10-27 (X)

US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023).

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

What would count as true or false

This is a strongly hedged ('could') prediction that US stocks would see a 10% correction. Roubini says he made it in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023. Judge through 2023-12-31. Measure the correction as the S&P 500's peak-to-trough decline in closing prices, from its 2023 high before the interview to its lowest close after the interview. Use the index he named in the interview if it was a different one. TRUE: a Bloomberg interview from early September 2023 shows him saying stocks could fall about 10%, and the index closed at least 10% below that peak by the horizon. MOSTLY TRUE: the interview is confirmed and the closing decline reached 9–10%, or reached 10% only intraday. MIXED: the interview is confirmed and the decline reached 7–9%. MOSTLY FALSE: the decline was under 7% but the prediction was made; or a decline of 10% or more happened but the September Bloomberg prediction cannot be confirmed in the form described. FALSE: the decline stayed under 5%, or the record of the interview shows he made no such call.

Evidence

  1. Wall Street falls, pulling S&P 500 down 10% from its July peak Los Angeles Times (AP story) · 27 October 2023
    “Stocks stumbled on Wall Street on Friday, bringing the Standard & Poor’s 500 index 10% below the peak it reached in July and putting the benchmark index into what’s called a “correction.””
  2. Stern in the News | September 19, 2023 NYU Stern School of Business · 19 September 2023
    “Professor Emeritus Nouriel Roubini interview: “Roubini Says BOE, ECB Must Raise Rates to Avoid Stagflation.””

Reasoning

E1 (AP, 2023-10-27) reports the S&P 500 fell 10% below its July peak, entering a correction, so a 10% decline occurred within the horizon. The only evidence of a Roubini interview in September 2023 (E2) is a 2023-09-19 listing headlined about BOE and ECB rate hikes. It does not mention a call for a 10% stock correction and does not clearly date it to early September. Under the criteria, a 10%+ decline with the September Bloomberg prediction unconfirmed in the described form resolves as mostly false.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023).” (said 27 October 2023). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_67978649e870, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_67978649e870

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