ClaimsPeople

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is an author and Project Syndicate columnist who is Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Professor Emeritus at NYU Stern, widely known as 'Dr. Doom'.

294 claims collected, 146 researched, 66 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 64 80

    Medium confidence, 48 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2006 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 29 unresolvable.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    40 27 53

    Medium confidence, 18 predictions resolved. From 9 documents, 2006 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable. 5 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 63 (likely 56 to 70, high confidence), from 66 claims: 48 factual claims, 18 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nouriel Roubini's claims

69 claims

69 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction Oct 2026 Global growth should improve in 2027 and inflation should fall, after the economy weathered major trade and energy shocks over the previous two years. Prediction · Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Oct 2026 Political and policy-driven risks to the global economic outlook are less likely than the benign baseline scenario. Prediction · Oct 2026 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction Apr 2026 Technological advances such as AI will drive the world economy over the next 10 to 20 years, regardless of geopolitics, climate change or populism, and will be positive for the world. Prediction · Apr 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Prediction Nov 2025 The US economy could follow one of three possible paths going into 2026, and the most likely scenario is also the most positive. Prediction · Nov 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 30 Jun 2024 The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario. Prediction · 30 Jun 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 10 Nov 2023 The Israel-Hamas conflict can escalate into a regional war as Israel campaigns to eliminate Hamas. Prediction · 10 Nov 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 10 Nov 2023 If the Gaza war escalates into a regional war, global fallout would include a 1970s-style oil shock, crashing equities and a stagflationary recession. Prediction · 10 Nov 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 27 Oct 2023 US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023). Prediction · 27 Oct 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 18 Oct 2023 In a risk scenario, China blockades Taiwan while the US is bogged down in the Ukraine and Middle East wars. Prediction · 18 Oct 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 18 Oct 2023 In a risk scenario, Iran unleashes Hezbollah to prevent Israel from destroying Hamas. Prediction · 18 Oct 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 18 Oct 2023 Roubini's baseline view was that the Israel-Hamas conflict would stay confined to Israel and Gaza. He named a risk scenario in which Iran would unleash Hezbollah to stop Israel from destroying Hamas. Prediction · 18 Oct 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 The desirable outcome, in which good policies, good leadership, some luck and massive technological innovation allow the world to address these threats, looks less likely than the dystopian outcome. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 3 Jan 2023 China will respond strongly to US technological and economic containment rather than take it lightly. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 An end to the war in Ukraine would not make much difference to the world's biggest economic problems. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Roubini said his worry is that there will be a very severe debt crisis. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Roubini said he felt that this time around "we'll have to go through the mess", adding that there is no simple solution to these threats. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 A confrontation in Taiwan would shock the global economy far more than any spike in oil and food prices. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Firms in AI, machine learning, Big Data, 5G, 6G, IoT, cloud, quantum, biotech and tech generally will do well in the future. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Technology
Mostly false Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Roubini said he worries that the Great Moderation is over and that a Great Deflationary Debt Crisis and instability is upon us, as a medium- to long-term phenomenon rather than one lasting a year or two. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Roubini said he did not think a variant of another Great Depression could be ruled out if the threats he describes in his book were to materialize. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Millennials, Gen X and Gen Z may be the first generations to be worse off than their parents in income, jobs, benefits and economic and wealth security. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 6 Nov 2022 History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Nov 2022 US stocks will fall much lower than their November 2022 level before flattening out. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Even in a mild recession the US stock market has to fall 30% from its peak, meaning about another 10% down from the November 2022 level. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Developments connected to machine learning will cause massive inequality, with owners of capital and highly skilled labor winning while everybody else loses. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Once the Fed stops raising rates or pivots to cuts, gold will act as a hedge. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Stocks may enter a period like 1973-1982, when they dropped and stayed very low for a long time. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Oct 2022 He does not expect hyperinflation or double-digit inflation in the advanced economies. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Oct 2022 Over the longer term, AI will make humans almost completely obsolete. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Oct 2022 There will be inflation, recession and stagflation plus a stagflation-debt crisis causing many people to go bankrupt. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 28 Oct 2022 Central banks, starting with the Bank of England, will wimp out on tightening, causing inflation to go above 2%. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Oct 2022 There is a very real risk of a return to 1930s-40s conditions of economic collapse, massive pandemic and real wars. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 28 Oct 2022 UK mortgage rates may double because of reckless fiscal policy and debt build-up. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Oct 2022 The US and China will eventually be on a collision course over Taiwan or the East and South China Seas. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Oct 2022 With interest rates rising, the mother of all debt crises is going to occur. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 28 Oct 2022 If the major threats are not acted on within the next decade, the world will reach a point of no return. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction 28 Oct 2022 There may be a global conflict in the next decade. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Oct 2022 If the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheet cracks, sea levels will rise 10 feet within about 4 months. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Oct 2022 If inflation gets de-anchored, it can rise from around 2% to 4% or even 5% or more. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 28 Oct 2022 If inflation rises from 2% to 6%, 10-year US Treasury yields would rise to about 8%. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Oct 2022 The economy is entering an era of stagflation, debt instability and crisis. Prediction · 25 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Oct 2022 Unless the mega threats are addressed, the world is headed towards disaster. Prediction · 25 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 21 Sep 2021 The rosy scenario priced into markets may prove a pipe dream given high debt, supply-side risks and loose policies. Prediction · 21 Sep 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 21 Sep 2021 The end game of the global debt trap will be a stagflationary debt crisis. Prediction · 21 Sep 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 21 Sep 2021 Over time, negative supply shocks could turn mild stagflation into severe stagflation. Prediction · 21 Sep 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Aug 2021 The Biden administration's new neo-populist economic doctrine will be risky. Prediction · 3 Aug 2021 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 20 Jul 2021 Bitcoin's price should fall much lower than below $30,000 based on fundamentals. Prediction · 20 Jul 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 30 Dec 2019 A Minsky Moment (financial crisis) is unlikely in China; instead its growth will slow steadily. Prediction · 30 Dec 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 24 Dec 2019 Over time Trump will damage US alliances and weaken US soft and hard power, making China stronger. Prediction · 24 Dec 2019 AI policy and governance
Mixed Prediction 15 Oct 2018 Now that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted from 2017's valuations, the techno-utopian mystique of distributed-ledger technologies should be next. Prediction · 15 Oct 2018 Technology
Mostly false Prediction 13 Sep 2018 Unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage the next downturn around 2020. Prediction · 13 Sep 2018 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 13 Sep 2018 The global economy's synchronized growth will lose momentum as unsustainable US fiscal policies start to phase out. Prediction · 13 Sep 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 13 Sep 2018 By 2020, conditions will be in place for another economic downturn. Prediction · 13 Sep 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Sep 2006 US real home prices will fall 20 to 30 percent over the next three years or so, from September 2006. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US housing market will have its biggest bust in decades. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Sep 2006 Foreign buyers purchasing US property in dollars will suffer currency capital losses as the dollar weakens against the euro and other currencies. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Sep 2006 Speculative housing demand will now disappear because prices are flattening and falling. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Sep 2006 US national real home prices may fall 20 to 30 percent. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Sep 2006 US home prices would fall at least 20% and housing starts and demand at least 50% in the worst housing recession since the Great Depression. Prediction · Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2006 The housing bust would lead to a banking and financial crisis as homeowners defaulted on mortgages and banks failed. Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 2006 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would go bankrupt and the credit crunch would lead to a US recession by some time in 2007. Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
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Nouriel Roubini

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Prediction Economics and markets

“With the global economy having weathered major trade and energy shocks over the past two years, growth should improve in 2027, and inflation should fall.”

Nouriel Roubini, columnist, Project Syndicate October 2026 Why Is the Global Economy So Resilient? (Project Syndicate)

Global growth should improve in 2027 and inflation should fall, after the economy weathered major trade and energy shocks over the previous two years.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2027 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “Global growth should improve in 2027 and inflation should fall, after the economy weathered major trade and energy shocks over the previous two years.” (said October 2026). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_e61ca87b48a1, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e61ca87b48a1

Claims without a verdict

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