ClaimsPeople

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is an author and Project Syndicate columnist who is Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Professor Emeritus at NYU Stern, widely known as 'Dr. Doom'.

294 claims collected, 146 researched, 66 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 64 80

    Medium confidence, 48 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2006 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 29 unresolvable.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    40 27 53

    Medium confidence, 18 predictions resolved. From 9 documents, 2006 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable. 5 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 63 (likely 56 to 70, high confidence), from 66 claims: 48 factual claims, 18 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nouriel Roubini's claims

294 claims · page 1 of 3

294 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Factual Oct 2026 The 2026 Iran War caused the largest energy shock since the oil crises of the 1970s. Factual · Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Oct 2026 Despite rising risks, uncertainties and large negative supply shocks over the last two years, stock markets and the global economy have held up quite well. Factual · Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Oct 2026 US President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs of April 2, 2025 were followed in 2026 by the Iran War. Factual · Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction Oct 2026 Global growth should improve in 2027 and inflation should fall, after the economy weathered major trade and energy shocks over the previous two years. Prediction · Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Oct 2026 Political and policy-driven risks to the global economic outlook are less likely than the benign baseline scenario. Prediction · Oct 2026 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction Apr 2026 Technological advances such as AI will drive the world economy over the next 10 to 20 years, regardless of geopolitics, climate change or populism, and will be positive for the world. Prediction · Apr 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not checkable Not checkable Nov 2025 This has been a bumpy year for the US economy. Not checkable · Nov 2025
Unresolvable Factual Nov 2025 In 2025 there was a massive boom in AI-related investment in the US, while policy-induced uncertainty and disruptions to official data releases clouded the economic picture. Factual · Nov 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Nov 2025 The longest-ever US government shutdown disrupted official employment and inflation data, further clouding policymakers' perceptions. Factual · Nov 2025 AI policy and governance
Not checkable Not checkable Nov 2025 The big question now is what 2026 will bring. Not checkable · Nov 2025
Mixed Factual Nov 2025 Despite a massive boom in AI-related investment in 2025, uncertainty caused by President Trump's tariffs and other policies curtailed US growth in the second half of the year. Factual · Nov 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction Nov 2025 The US economy could follow one of three possible paths going into 2026, and the most likely scenario is also the most positive. Prediction · Nov 2025 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 30 Jun 2024 We will know more in the next 30 minutes - when polls of the first round close - whether I got it right. Not checkable · 30 Jun 2024
Resolved false Prediction 30 Jun 2024 The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario. Prediction · 30 Jun 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Factual 30 Jun 2024 Official polls and most analysts predicted a hung parliament as their baseline for the 2024 French parliamentary elections. Factual · 30 Jun 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Apr 2024 Terrorist organizations directly taking orders from the Iranian government. Not checkable · 3 Apr 2024
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Apr 2024 So get a life and don’t hide behind fig leafs Not checkable · 3 Apr 2024
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Apr 2024 The Iranians are the masters of attacking embassies and have done so for decades (or centuries) with impunity. Spare Israel the lectures. Not checkable · 3 Apr 2024
Unresolvable Factual 28 Dec 2023 A few dozen Russian politicians and regime-connected people have died by falling from buildings. Factual · 28 Dec 2023 Other
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Dec 2023 Putin gotta improve their buildings safety standards! Not checkable · 28 Dec 2023
Unresolvable Factual 15 Dec 2023 A Chinese spy used Binance to pay his agent, a corrupt European politician, in crypto, as reported by the Financial Times on 2023-12-15. Factual · 15 Dec 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 14 Dec 2023 My new @FT oped ‘Flatcoins’ are the way forward. Not checkable · 14 Dec 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 14 Dec 2023 The tokens merge the benefits of blockchain and fintech to provide a hedge against inflation while doing social good Not checkable · 14 Dec 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Dec 2023 It is a trust fund kids world Not checkable · 1 Dec 2023
Resolved true Factual 29 Nov 2023 Roubini published a recent Project Syndicate piece discussing the rise in economic threats and their interactions with social, political, environmental and technological developments. Factual · 29 Nov 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Nov 2023 Pathetic double standard Not checkable · 28 Nov 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Nov 2023 But no one says a word about China’s systematic destruction of Islam starting with Xinjiang. Not checkable · 28 Nov 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 24 Nov 2023 Now he is gone. Good riddance! Not checkable · 24 Nov 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 22 Nov 2023 Happy Tasty Tryptophan Thanksgiving! Not checkable · 22 Nov 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 17 Nov 2023 This app looks amazing. Not checkable · 17 Nov 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 15 Nov 2023 Not surprising to me for obvious reasons! Not checkable · 15 Nov 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 15 Nov 2023 See why our signals work. Not checkable · 15 Nov 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 14 Nov 2023 The biggest red flag of all is blockchainers/shitcoiners Not checkable · 14 Nov 2023
Unresolvable Prediction 10 Nov 2023 The Israel-Hamas conflict can escalate into a regional war as Israel campaigns to eliminate Hamas. Prediction · 10 Nov 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 10 Nov 2023 If the Gaza war escalates into a regional war, global fallout would include a 1970s-style oil shock, crashing equities and a stagflationary recession. Prediction · 10 Nov 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Nov 2023 The most comprehensive analysis of the Gaza hospital explosion. Not checkable · 3 Nov 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 31 Oct 2023 As if that was the most important aspect of WW3 Not checkable · 31 Oct 2023
Mostly false Prediction 27 Oct 2023 US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023). Prediction · 27 Oct 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 18 Oct 2023 In a risk scenario, China blockades Taiwan while the US is bogged down in the Ukraine and Middle East wars. Prediction · 18 Oct 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 18 Oct 2023 In a risk scenario, Iran unleashes Hezbollah to prevent Israel from destroying Hamas. Prediction · 18 Oct 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Factual 18 Oct 2023 Preliminary evidence indicates a Palestinian rocket caused the October 2023 explosion at a Gaza hospital. Factual · 18 Oct 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 18 Oct 2023 Roubini's baseline view was that the Israel-Hamas conflict would stay confined to Israel and Gaza. He named a risk scenario in which Iran would unleash Hezbollah to stop Israel from destroying Hamas. Prediction · 18 Oct 2023 Other global risks
Not checkable Not checkable 17 Oct 2023 What a scam! Not checkable · 17 Oct 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 16 Oct 2023 Supporting Israel and protecting Palestinians are not contradictory policies . Not checkable · 16 Oct 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 16 Oct 2023 Western leaders who take Israel’s tragedy seriously are the only ones who will gain a hearing in Tel Aviv Not checkable · 16 Oct 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 14 Oct 2023 Some D buzzwords from the IMF/WB Annual Meetings in Marrakech: deglobalization, derisking, decoupling, dedollarization, demography, debt… Not checkable · 14 Oct 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 14 Oct 2023 They overlap with my 10 Mega-Threats Not checkable · 14 Oct 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 11 Oct 2023 All involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict should heed the warnings of 1982 Not checkable · 11 Oct 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 10 Oct 2023 There is a clear and present danger that all his wartime decisions against Hamas will be polluted by personal, legal and petty political… Not checkable · 10 Oct 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 10 Oct 2023 Netanyahu must go now, not after the Gaza war Not checkable · 10 Oct 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 10 Oct 2023 He has been a poor prime minister from Lebanon to China Not checkable · 10 Oct 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 meaning there is a debt trap. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Unresolvable Factual 3 Jan 2023 Japan stagnated with essentially deflation and mediocre economic growth for 20 years because it kept zombie firms alive too long. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 They’re written by their PR or communication departments rather than based on hard choices. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 Many young people are a little more engaged than other generations and maybe, once they start to get engaged and vote and be politically… Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Resolved true Factual 3 Jan 2023 China produces or processes most of the rare-earth metals used in electric vehicles. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 Today, we have the worst of the 70s in terms of negative supply shocks—Covid-19’s impact on the economy, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine… Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 The desirable outcome, in which good policies, good leadership, some luck and massive technological innovation allow the world to address these threats, looks less likely than the dystopian outcome. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 3 Jan 2023 China will respond strongly to US technological and economic containment rather than take it lightly. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Other global risks
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is just a small footnote, frankly. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 It’s very costly in the short run to do the stuff that gets you the net zero. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 The risk of inflation together with recession—stagflation. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Mostly false Factual 3 Jan 2023 Food prices were already spiking before the invasion because desertification in many parts of the world limits the food supply. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 Frankly, most of it is greenwashing and “greenwishing”. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 Fine-tuning the balance between the two is an art rather than a science. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 Valuation became excessive and that’s why we see the correction of stuff that is more VC-related, especially [those businesses] without any… Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 An end to the war in Ukraine would not make much difference to the world's biggest economic problems. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 The dawn of the zombies is over. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Roubini said his worry is that there will be a very severe debt crisis. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 3 Jan 2023 All the zombie institutions that survived because of negative interest rates, quantitative easing and credit easing now face rising debt servicing ratios. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 So we tend to kick the can down the road…hoping that either a miracle or technology are going to resolve [them]. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Unresolvable Factual 3 Jan 2023 Renewable capacity has not kept pace with the reduction in fossil fuel capacity, creating a structural energy supply problem. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 3 Jan 2023 Climate policy and pressure on Big Oil have led to a spike in fossil fuel prices regardless of events in Ukraine. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Roubini said he felt that this time around "we'll have to go through the mess", adding that there is no simple solution to these threats. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 This is a policy of outright containment because of course, whoever controls chips will control AI, machine learning, quantum—you name it. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 Central banks are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Unresolvable Factual 3 Jan 2023 The global debt-to-GDP ratio was 100% in the 1970s, while in advanced economies today it is 420% of GDP and rising. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 3 Jan 2023 Tech-related stocks, as long-duration assets, are hit by rising interest rates more than shorter-duration assets. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 All of those net-zero plans are a bit of a joke. They’re not really serious. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 A confrontation in Taiwan would shock the global economy far more than any spike in oil and food prices. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Firms in AI, machine learning, Big Data, 5G, 6G, IoT, cloud, quantum, biotech and tech generally will do well in the future. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Technology
Mostly false Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Roubini said he worries that the Great Moderation is over and that a Great Deflationary Debt Crisis and instability is upon us, as a medium- to long-term phenomenon rather than one lasting a year or two. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual 3 Jan 2023 Corporate debt and shadow bank lending to companies built up over the last 10 to 15 years, and became even more extreme after Covid-19. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 There is no simple solution to these threats. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 the Schumpeterian principle of creative destruction has to work. If you don’t allow that creative distruction, you have zombie institutions… Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Mostly true Factual 3 Jan 2023 Fifty percent of the world's semiconductors and 80% of high-end semiconductors are produced in Taiwan. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 To me, to be optimistic means to accept reality and then do something about changing the world for the better in many small and big ways. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 Doing it right is complicated. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 3 Jan 2023 It’s a race on dominating the world both economically and geopolitically. Not checkable · 3 Jan 2023
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Roubini said he did not think a variant of another Great Depression could be ruled out if the threats he describes in his book were to materialize. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Nov 2022 Massive technological unemployment is permanent for people, and it’s not their fault. Not checkable · 6 Nov 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Nov 2022 Gold does well when there is inflation. Not checkable · 6 Nov 2022
Resolved false Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Nov 2022 Current generations have essentially screwed the young. Not checkable · 6 Nov 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Nov 2022 I think the debate right now is not soft versus hard landing, but whether there’s going to be just a short and shallow, mild recession or… Not checkable · 6 Nov 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Nov 2022 There is an intergenerational conflict between the young and the old. Not checkable · 6 Nov 2022
Resolved true Factual 6 Nov 2022 During the 2008 Great Financial Crisis the S&P 500 fell cumulatively by about 50%. Factual · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Nov 2022 Millennials, Gen X and Gen Z may be the first generations to be worse off than their parents in income, jobs, benefits and economic and wealth security. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Nov 2022 if you raise interest rates, you can also have a crash of equity markets, bond markets, credit markets, and asset prices in general that… Not checkable · 6 Nov 2022
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Nouriel Roubini

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Factual AI policy and governance

“Following the shock of US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” (April 2) tariffs in 2025 came this year’s Iran War”

Nouriel Roubini, columnist, Project Syndicate October 2026 Why Is the Global Economy So Resilient? (Project Syndicate)

US President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs of April 2, 2025 were followed in 2026 by the Iran War.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

True if Trump announced 'Liberation Day' tariffs on 2 April 2025 and a conflict commonly called the 'Iran War' (sustained US and/or Israeli military hostilities with Iran) occurred in 2026, before October 2026. Mostly true if both events happened but there is a minor detail error, for example the war began in late 2025 and continued into 2026. Mostly false if the only US–Iran hostilities in 2026 were limited strikes that are not reasonably described as a war, or if the war took place only in 2025 (such as the June 2025 strikes) rather than 2026. False if no war involving Iran took place in 2026, or if the Liberation Day tariffs were not on 2 April 2025.

Evidence

  1. Remarks Announcing Additional United States Tariff Actions on Foreign Imports Government Publishing Office (GovInfo), Compilation of Presidential Documents; transcript of White House remarks · 2 April 2025
    “My fellow Americans, this is "liberation day." Been waiting a long time. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed”
  2. Remarks Announcing Additional United States Tariff Actions on Foreign Imports Government Publishing Office (GovInfo), Compilation of Presidential Documents; transcript of White House remarks · 2 April 2025
    “And for these reasons, starting tomorrow, the United States will implement reciprocal tariffs on other nations.”
  3. 2026 Iran war - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 28 February 2026
    “Since 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel have been at war with Iran and its regional allies.”
  4. 2026 Iran war - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 28 February 2026
    “Amid ongoing US–Iran negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program, the war began when the US and Israel conducted hundreds of air strikes on targets across Iran, including strikes that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei”

Reasoning

The official GovInfo transcript of Trump's remarks on 2 April 2025 calls that day "liberation day" and announces reciprocal tariffs (E1, E2). Wikipedia says the US and Israel have been at war with Iran since 28 February 2026, starting with hundreds of air strikes across Iran (E3, E4). That is sustained hostilities in 2026, before October, so both parts of the criteria are met.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “US President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs of April 2, 2025 were followed in 2026 by the Iran War.” (said October 2026). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_cb2bca4f7ae7, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cb2bca4f7ae7

Claims without a verdict

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