Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
72 64 80 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
40 27 53
All types combined: 63 (likely 56 to 70, high confidence), from 66 claims: 48 factual claims, 18 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Nouriel Roubini's claims
“I’d expect prices to be 5 to 10 percent lower a year from now, on average.”
Nouriel Roubini, interviewed in New York Magazine 25 September 2006 The Coming Housing and Economic Crash: My Interview Today with New York Magazine (EconoMonitor)
New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006.
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
The forecast is that average NYC home prices in September 2007 (Q3 2007 data where needed) will be 5–10% lower than in September 2006. Use a citywide average or median sale price if available. Otherwise use Manhattan Q3 market reports and the S&P/Case-Shiller New York index, preferring the measure closest to 'NYC average'. The stated range is the claim's precision. True: the year-over-year decline is between 5% and 10% inclusive. Mostly true: the decline is in range, but only on a slightly different but reasonable measure or period. Mostly false: the change is just outside the range, a decline of 4.5–5% or 10–10.5%. False: any other result, including a smaller decline, a rise, or a decline above 10.5%. If credible measures disagree on whether the result is in range, rate it mixed.
Evidence
- NYC Defies National Home Price Declines, Sets Real Estate Records in 2007 Multi-Housing News (name taken from the domain; no publisher name appears in the fetched text) · 3 January 2008
“The average New York apartment price rose 17.6 percent from the fourth quarter of 2006 to 2007, hitting $1.4 million at the end of the year, according to brokerage firm Prudential Douglas Elliman.”
Reasoning
E1 is an independent report using Prudential Douglas Elliman data. It says the average New York apartment price rose 17.6% from Q4 2006 to Q4 2007, reaching $1.4 million at the end of the year, according to Prudential Douglas Elliman [E1]. That period overlaps most of the September 2006–September 2007 window and shows a substantial rise rather than a 5–10% decline. The measure and period differ somewhat from the criteria, and no Q3 or Case-Shiller figure was provided. Even so, a rise of this size is inconsistent with the predicted decline, so the claim resolves false.
Cite this claim
Nouriel Roubini, “New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006.” (said 25 September 2006). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_ac4b8a8d10d2, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ac4b8a8d10d2
Claims without a verdict
- Unresolvable 75
- Not yet due 5
- Not checkable 148
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