Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
82 76 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
61 47 75 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
67 46 85
All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Nate Silver's claims
35 claims
“In 2022, for example, Republican Phil Scott won Vermont’s gubernatorial race by 47 points, while Democrat Peter Welch won the Senate contest by 40 points.”
Nate Silver, author, Silver Bulletin 23 October 2026 Do these Senate-governor splits make sense? (Silver Bulletin)
In 2022, Republican Phil Scott won Vermont's gubernatorial race by 47 points while Democrat Peter Welch won the Vermont Senate race by 40 points.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
Judged against certified November 2022 Vermont general election results. True if Phil Scott (R) won the governor's race by a margin rounding to 47 percentage points (46.5–47.4 points) and Peter Welch (D) won the U.S. Senate race by a margin rounding to 40 points (39.5–40.4), or both are within 1 point of the stated figures. Mostly true if both winners and parties are correct and each margin is within 2 points of the stated figure. Mixed if one margin is accurate and the other off by more than 2 points. Mostly false if both winners are right but both margins are off by more than 2 points. False if either winner or party is wrong.
Evidence
- 2022 Vermont gubernatorial election - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Scott's 47-point victory margin was the largest for a Republican candidate since 1950, even while Democratic congressman Peter Welch won the concurrent U.S. Senate election by a 40-point margin.”
- 2022 Vermont gubernatorial election - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Republican | Phil Scott (incumbent) | 202,147 | 70.91% | +0.75”
- 2022 Vermont gubernatorial election - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Democratic/Progressive | Brenda Siegel[f] | 68,248 | 23.94%”
Reasoning
The gubernatorial results table gives Phil Scott (R) 70.91% (E2) and Brenda Siegel (D/P) 23.94% (E3). That is a margin of about 46.97 points, which rounds to 47. The same independent article says Democrat Peter Welch won the concurrent U.S. Senate race by a 40-point margin (E1). No Senate vote totals were provided, but the stated margin matches the claim, so both winners, both parties and both margins are consistent with the claim.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “In 2022, Republican Phil Scott won Vermont's gubernatorial race by 47 points while Democrat Peter Welch won the Vermont Senate race by 40 points.” (said 23 October 2026). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_77bd31b7cbb9, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_77bd31b7cbb9
Claims without a verdict
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