Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
-
Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
82 76 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
61 47 75 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
67 46 85
All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Nate Silver's claims
38 claims
“With AI looming too," he said, "it could be the biggest issue of 2028.”
Nate Silver, election forecaster, on Ezra Klein podcast 28 October 2026 Nate Silver's Midterm Predictions on 'End of the Trump Era' and AI (Newsweek)
Silver said that, "with AI looming too," "it could be the biggest issue of 2028," and argued that AI could become one of the defining issues of the next US presidential election.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Reasoning
deadline 2028 is after 2026-11-04
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Silver said that, "with AI looming too," "it could be the biggest issue of 2028," and argued that AI could become one of the defining issues of the next US presidential election.” (said 28 October 2026). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_f44e02ce7c21, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f44e02ce7c21
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Nate Silver? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.