ClaimsPeople

Nate Silver

Nate Silver is an election forecaster and writer who founded FiveThirtyEight and now publishes the Silver Bulletin newsletter.

617 claims collected, 163 researched, 84 resolved. Report of 10 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    82 76 88

    High confidence, 63 factual claims resolved. From 19 documents, 2012 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 42 unresolvable, 7 checkable only against their own records.

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    61 47 75

    Medium confidence, 16 predictions resolved. From 8 documents, 2015 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 12 unresolvable. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    67 46 85

    Low confidence, 5 promises resolved. From 4 documents, 2022 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 7 unresolvable.

All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nate Silver's claims

113 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Factual 28 Oct 2026 Abdul El-Sayed is not a DSA guy but is sort of a more left populist. Factual · 28 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Factual 23 Oct 2026 In the 2026 cycle, Democratic Senate candidates are polling surprisingly well in traditionally red states such as Texas. Factual · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Own records only Factual 23 Oct 2026 Most of the remaining uncertainty in the FLIPR forecast comes from potential polling error rather than late shifts in polls. Factual · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Factual 23 Oct 2026 Gina Hinojosa trails Republican Governor Greg Abbott by 2.7 points in the Texas gubernatorial race polling. Factual · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Factual 23 Oct 2026 In 2022, Kansas elected a Republican senator and a Democratic governor. Factual · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 23 Oct 2026 In 2022, Republican Phil Scott won Vermont's gubernatorial race by 47 points while Democrat Peter Welch won the Vermont Senate race by 40 points. Factual · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Factual 23 Oct 2026 In bluer states, most obviously Michigan and Minnesota, Democratic Senate candidates' polling in 2026 has been less than stellar. Factual · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 23 Oct 2026 Jocelyn Benson's lead in Michigan gubernatorial polls is about 4.2 points larger than Abdul El-Sayed's lead in the Michigan Senate polls. Factual · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025 Winning the Senate in 2026 would require Democrats to win at least two states that are solidly red at the presidential level. Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Unresolvable Factual 12 May 2025 Georgia is not a Democratic pickup opportunity in 2026; Democrats are defending Jon Ossoff's seat. Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Unresolvable Factual 12 May 2025 Cook Political Report rates all GOP-held 2026 Senate seats except Maine, North Carolina and Ohio as "solid Republican". Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025 Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to win the Senate majority in 2026. Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Unresolvable Factual 12 May 2025 Democrats clearly do have a pathway to a Senate majority in 2028. Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025 Susan Collins won re-election in Maine in 2020 even as Donald Trump lost the presidency to Joe Biden. Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Unresolvable Factual 8 Apr 2025 Nate Silver said the S&P 500 was up about 2.5% on the day he spoke (the remark is dated 8 April 2025), and that this cut its loss from the early-February peak to about 20%. Factual · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 8 Apr 2025 Nate Silver said he cashed in a tournament he played in, describing himself as "the first player in the money." Factual · 8 Apr 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 8 Apr 2025 The average US tariff rate on the rest of the world was at least 23% as of April 2025. Factual · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 8 Apr 2025 The two special elections held in early April 2025 were in extremely Republican-leaning, rural Florida districts. Factual · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 8 Apr 2025 Congress has the power to pass a law stopping President Trump's tariffs. Factual · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 8 Apr 2025 About 60% of Americans have investments in the stock market. Factual · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 7 Nov 2024 In Silver Bulletin's final model, Harris won all swing states except Arizona in about 4 percent of simulations. Factual · 7 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 7 Nov 2024 Utah has gradually become more politically purple, due to a tech-sector workforce and Mormons not always being keen on Trump. Factual · 7 Nov 2024 Other
Own records only Factual 7 Nov 2024 Nate Silver voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Factual · 7 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 7 Nov 2024 Conservatives leaving blue states tend to move to Florida and Texas, making those states redder, and many polls did not catch up. Factual · 7 Nov 2024 Other
Unresolvable Factual 7 Nov 2024 In simulations producing the actual map, projected state margins missed actual results by an average of 2.3 points, given results reported so far. Factual · 7 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 7 Nov 2024 Nate Silver said Iowa stood apart as its own group because of the Selzer poll, which he said was not highly accurate. Factual · 7 Nov 2024 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 7 Nov 2024 In Silver Bulletin's final model, a Trump sweep of the seven swing states was the most common scenario, occurring in 20 percent of simulations. Factual · 7 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 9 Oct 2024 John McCain had periods of strong polling in 2008, especially after the Republican Convention, but Barack Obama won in a landslide. Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 9 Oct 2024 Silver said that, if anything, there was too little panic among Democrats about 2016, and that they were dismissive of polls showing a tightening race late in the campaign and a tenuous Hillary Clinton lead in the Electoral College. Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Factual 9 Oct 2024 As of early October 2024, the US presidential election is about four weeks away. Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 9 Oct 2024 The previous Quinnipiac polls of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were quite a bit better for Harris than the latest ones. Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 9 Oct 2024 Dozens of election polls are released every week. Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 9 Oct 2024 Since Nate Silver began covering elections in 2008, Democrats have been prone to bouts of panic about the state of the horse race. Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Factual 8 Oct 2024 Silver wrote that Harris's win probability rises from 28 percent to 59 percent if her popular vote lead goes from 2 points (rounded down) to 3 points. Factual · 8 Oct 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Factual 8 Oct 2024 Since the Silver Bulletin forecast relaunch on July 30, 2024, Harris has won 49.4 percent of simulations on average and Trump 50.2 percent. Factual · 8 Oct 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 8 Oct 2024 The Silver Bulletin win probabilities have moved even though the popular vote forecast has barely moved, because the translation from popular vote to Electoral College follows the baseball game principle. Factual · 8 Oct 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Factual 8 Oct 2024 The Silver Bulletin popular vote forecast has barely moved, other than when RFK Jr. quit the race and both candidates gained ground. Factual · 8 Oct 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Factual 8 Oct 2024 After the debate, Harris re-established a consistent lead of about 3 points in national polls, leaving the Electoral College roughly 50/50 or maybe a slight Harris edge. Factual · 8 Oct 2024 Other
Mostly true Factual 8 Oct 2024 In baseball, single-run leads are relatively durable because runs tend to come in bunches and the default outcome is not to score at all. Factual · 8 Oct 2024 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 13 Aug 2024 Nate Silver has moved his election forecast model back to his Silver Bulletin newsletter, where the probabilities are technically paywalled. Factual · 13 Aug 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 13 Aug 2024 Millions of people died worldwide in the COVID pandemic, and life was disrupted more than at any time since World War II. Factual · 13 Aug 2024 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 13 Aug 2024 In 2024 Nate Silver is releasing a book, a newsletter and a podcast. Factual · 13 Aug 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 13 Aug 2024 Nate Silver interviewed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in about August 2022, when OpenAI was internally developing ChatGPT 3.5 and GPT-4. Factual · 13 Aug 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 13 Aug 2024 Humans evolved over hundreds of thousands of years in an environment without abundance. Factual · 13 Aug 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Factual 13 Aug 2024 For most of human history people were trying to survive against violent predators and similar threats, and the average lifespan was 40 years. Factual · 13 Aug 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 13 Aug 2024 In August 2024, Silver suggested, as a rhetorical question, that AI still could not fold clothes or do laundry. Factual · 13 Aug 2024 AI capabilities
Own records only Factual 12 Sep 2023 Nate Silver has occasionally voted Republican or independent for state or local office. Factual · 12 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 12 Sep 2023 Nate Silver has voted Democrat for president in every election since he was old enough, except 2012, when he did not vote. Factual · 12 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 12 Sep 2023 Nate Silver has consistently scored in about the same place on the Political Compass test for many years. Factual · 12 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 12 Sep 2023 In spring 2016, Nate Silver registered as a Republican to vote for John Kasich in the New York presidential primary. Factual · 12 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 11 Sep 2023 Nate Silver said launching FiveThirtyEight was basically his fourth career, after management consulting, professional poker, and baseball analytics. Factual · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 11 Sep 2023 Nate Silver turned on paid subscriptions for the Silver Bulletin newsletter by 11 September 2023. Factual · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 11 Sep 2023 The median Silver Bulletin post now gets about the same views as the median post Nate Silver wrote at FiveThirtyEight, with less variance (higher floor, lower ceiling so far). Factual · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 11 Sep 2023 On Substack, subscriptions automatically renew at the price the subscriber signed up for. Factual · 11 Sep 2023 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 11 Sep 2023 Substack staff told Nate Silver that suspending monthly payments and prorated annual refunds is relatively easy to do. Factual · 11 Sep 2023 Technology
Mostly true Factual 8 Sep 2023 The Wall Street Journal polls in partnership between a Republican polling firm and a Democratic polling firm. Factual · 8 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 8 Sep 2023 The polling firm GBAO has done millions of dollars' worth of polling for Democratic clients. Factual · 8 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 8 Sep 2023 Polls from around September 2015 can be found showing Hillary Clinton with double-digit leads over Donald Trump. Factual · 8 Sep 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Factual 8 Sep 2023 Polling conducted this early in a US presidential cycle has historically had little to no predictive power for the election result. Factual · 8 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 24 Jun 2022 Public trust in the US Supreme Court is way down in polls as of June 2022. Factual · 24 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
Mixed Factual 6 Jun 2022 Senator Susan Collins voted against Trump's position about one-third of the time, including voting to impeach him, and has voted with Biden about one-third of the time. Factual · 6 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
Mixed Factual 27 May 2022 Forgiving all student loan debt is quite unpopular with the public in polls. Factual · 27 May 2022 Economics and markets
Research failed Factual 27 May 2022 Forgiving some student loan debt is reasonably popular. Factual · 27 May 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 24 May 2022 In May 2022, Silver said Trump was not *that* far ahead of DeSantis in polls, and that it was pretty even once name recognition was accounted for. Factual · 24 May 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual 21 May 2022 Joe Biden's approval rating never had a spike. Factual · 21 May 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Factual 26 Jun 2021 If a very high percentage of a group is vaccinated, a fairly high percentage of infections may be among vaccinated people even if the vaccines are highly effective. Factual · 26 Jun 2021 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 22 Jun 2021 A group of scholars convened by Democracy to rewrite the constitution added a wealth tax but did not clarify the presidential line of succession beyond the VP. Factual · 22 Jun 2021 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jun 2021 Eric Adams has led on initial preference in 13 consecutive polls of the NYC mayoral primary. Factual · 21 Jun 2021 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual 16 Jun 2021 The risk of a vaccinated young person getting severely ill from COVID is incredibly low, though not zero. Factual · 16 Jun 2021 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 10 Jun 2021 The New York Times has a pretty striking negativity bias in its COVID coverage, even relative to other outlets. Factual · 10 Jun 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Factual 9 Jun 2021 A pollster that earlier showed a big bounce for Garcia has now shown a result implying either that the earlier poll was an outlier or that Wiley has taken over her momentum. Factual · 9 Jun 2021 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual 8 Jun 2021 The 2020 election forecasts by Nate Silver's team were largely accurate and well-calibrated despite a bad year for the polls. Factual · 8 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 30 Mar 2020 Biden leads Sanders by 19 points in FiveThirtyEight's national Democratic primary poll average as of 2020-03-30, basically unchanged over several weeks. Factual · 30 Mar 2020 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Factual 29 Mar 2020 As of 2020-03-29, the UK has tested about one-sixth as many people as the US and its detected case count is about one-sixth as high. Factual · 29 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Factual 29 Mar 2020 The Netherlands considered a herd immunity strategy and its case fatality rate is now 7% as of 2020-03-29. Factual · 29 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 28 Mar 2020 Italy has increased coronavirus testing considerably over the past several days as of 2020-03-28. Factual · 28 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 27 Mar 2020 As of 2020-03-27, detected coronavirus cases are increasing faster in red states than in blue states. Factual · 27 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 27 Mar 2020 As of late March 2020, the UK has a considerably higher coronavirus death rate than the US, with similar positives per capita. Factual · 27 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 27 Mar 2020 As of 2020-03-27, blue states have more detected coronavirus cases than red states. Factual · 27 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 30 Sep 2019 A new poll shows support for impeachment way up and the share who strongly approve of Trump also up, with overall approval roughly unchanged. Factual · 30 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Factual 30 Sep 2019 Two new Democratic primary polls released on 2019-09-30 show no negative fallout for Biden from the Ukraine story, and the HarrisX poll has him gaining a couple of points. Factual · 30 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual 29 Sep 2019 Margins of error in individual state and national primary polls on support among black or Hispanic voters are often very high, for example around +/- 10%. Factual · 29 Sep 2019 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 27 Sep 2019 Democratic primary delegate allocation is highly proportional, and a candidate eventually needs a majority of delegates to win. Factual · 27 Sep 2019 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 26 Sep 2019 In the Democratic primary, a candidate who gets under 15% in a given state or district receives no delegates. Factual · 26 Sep 2019 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Factual 26 Sep 2019 Pete Alonso's 2019 season is basically the closest season ever to Cecil Fielder's 1990 season. Factual · 26 Sep 2019 Other
Resolved true Factual 23 Sep 2019 Bernie Sanders polled at 11% in the highest-quality poll of Iowa released the weekend of 2019-09-21/22. Factual · 23 Sep 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 9 Nov 2016 Had Clinton done 2 percentage points better across the board in 2016, she would have received 307 electoral votes and the polls would have called 49 of 50 states correctly. Factual · 9 Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Mixed Factual Nov 2016 The 2016 polling error was modest and in line with historical polling errors, yet large enough to give Trump many paths to victory. Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Factual Nov 2016 FiveThirtyEight's final 2016 forecast, issued early on election Tuesday evening, gave Trump a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual Nov 2016 The main reason FiveThirtyEight's 2016 model gave Trump a better chance than other models was its assumption that polling errors are correlated. Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Factual Nov 2016 Inferences from early voting data have a fairly bad track record in predicting election outcomes, including in 2016. Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Factual Nov 2016 Most mainstream journalists would have given Trump much lower odds than the 30 percent chance FiveThirtyEight gave him. Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual Nov 2016 Clinton significantly underperformed her polls across the Midwest and Rust Belt in the 2016 election, costing her the Electoral College. Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Factual 11 Oct 2016 FiveThirtyEight's forecast of Clinton's chances is based on objective analysis of polling in presidential elections dating back to 1972. Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Factual 11 Oct 2016 FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Trump only a 20 percent chance of winning given his polling numbers at the time of the second debate. Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Other
Mostly true Factual 11 Oct 2016 The two scientific polls after the second 2016 presidential debate showed a Clinton win, but a more marginal one than after the first debate. Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 11 Oct 2016 Silver said that all the scientific polls after the first 2016 presidential debate showed Clinton had won by a pretty emphatic margin. Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 11 Oct 2016 Scientific post-debate polls showed voters thought Clinton did better in the second 2016 presidential debate. Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Factual 11 Oct 2016 Silver said he thought "we" had the team, then playing in the NLDS, at "a 35 percent chance or something" of winning the three series in a row it still needed, and that the figure was rising. Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Other
Mixed Factual 11 Oct 2016 Other forecasts gave Trump even lower chances than the 20 percent in Silver's forecast with numbers like those: five or ten percent. Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Other
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Nate Silver

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Factual AI policy and governance

“He's actually not a DSA guy, but sort of a more left populist.”

Nate Silver, election forecaster, on Ezra Klein podcast 28 October 2026 Nate Silver's Midterm Predictions on 'End of the Trump Era' and AI (Newsweek)

Abdul El-Sayed is not a DSA guy but is sort of a more left populist.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2026-10-28. True: credible reporting or El-Sayed's own statements show he is not a DSA member (and was not endorsed as a DSA candidate in a way that implies membership), and he is commonly described as a progressive or left populist. Mostly true: he is not a member, but there are DSA affiliations such as endorsements, or he is better characterised by a somewhat different label. Mixed: membership is ambiguous (e.g. past membership). Mostly false: he has a meaningful DSA affiliation that makes 'not a DSA guy' misleading. False: he is a current DSA member.

Evidence

  1. Unearthed social media posts contradict El-Sayed’s ‘capitalist’ narrative Fox News · 6 October 2026
    “"I'm not technically or practically DSA," El-Sayed told the Wall Street Journal in July.”
  2. Unearthed social media posts contradict El-Sayed’s ‘capitalist’ narrative Fox News · 6 October 2026
    “Although the DSA has not officially endorsed El-Sayed in his Senate bid or affirmed his platform, the DSA’s local support for him may raise questions of increased overlap between his platform and the DSA's official stances.”
  3. Unearthed social media posts contradict El-Sayed’s ‘capitalist’ narrative Fox News · 6 October 2026
    “Between 2017 and 2020, the Michigan Democrat spoke at six events held by Democratic Socialists of America chapters, including a 2019 fundraiser where he served as the keynote speaker. Additionally, DSA officials told Politico in July that they were mobilizing resources to help El-Sayed win his Democratic primary election.”
  4. Unearthed social media posts contradict El-Sayed’s ‘capitalist’ narrative Fox News · 6 October 2026
    “Socialist organizers, however, have called him "a longtime friend of Detroit DSA."”

Reasoning

Fox News reports El-Sayed telling the Wall Street Journal in July that he is "not technically or practically DSA" (E1). It also reports that the national DSA had not officially endorsed his Senate bid (E2). The same reporting describes DSA links: he spoke at six DSA chapter events between 2017 and 2020, DSA officials said they were mobilising resources for his primary campaign, and socialist organizers called him "a longtime friend of Detroit DSA" (E3, E4). The criteria treat non-membership combined with this kind of support as mostly true. None of the evidence describes him as a "left populist", so that part of the claim is not confirmed.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Abdul El-Sayed is not a DSA guy but is sort of a more left populist.” (said 28 October 2026). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_e12b2317c260, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e12b2317c260

Claims without a verdict

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