Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
82 76 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
61 47 75 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
67 46 85
All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Nate Silver's claims
3 claims
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly false | Promise | 7 Nov 2024 | Silver said he would probably begin with college basketball Elo ratings, with a goal of launching by the end of 2024, if not sooner. Promise · 7 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Prediction | 8 Sep 2023 | Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning. Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 | Other |
| Mostly false | Prediction | 8 Sep 2023 | If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024. Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 | Other |
“I’ll probably begin with college basketball Elo ratings just because those are pretty straightforward, with a goal of launching by the end of the year, if not sooner.”
Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 7 November 2024 The model exactly predicted the most likely election map (Silver Bulletin)
Silver said he would probably begin with college basketball Elo ratings, with a goal of launching by the end of 2024, if not sooner.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
What would count as true or false
The claim is that Silver would launch a college basketball Elo rating model by 31 December 2024. True: a college basketball Elo-based ratings model or page was published by Silver Bulletin or Silver on or before 31 December 2024. Mostly true: it launched by that date as a men's-only version or in beta form, or the rating system was described as Elo-like rather than strictly Elo. Mostly false: it launched after 31 December 2024 (however soon after), or a different college basketball rating that was not Elo-based launched on time. False: a dated post or archive from after 31 December 2024 shows no college basketball rating model had launched by then, or that the plan was dropped or delayed.
Evidence
- How to use Silver Bulletin Silver Bulletin (Substack) · 13 March 2025 Own record
“The next day, we began publishing our men’s SBCB college basketball ratings.”
- SBSQ #18: Will wokeness bounce back? Silver Bulletin (Substack) · 3 March 2025 Own record
“As a teaser, here’s a fully working beta version of the men’s SBCB ratings based on games played through Sunday night:”
- SBSQ #11b: On the future of the newsletter — and the sports models Silver Bulletin (Substack) · 18 August 2024 Own record
“This will probably be Eli But For Sports’s first project and one of the first things we’ll get up on the site after the election.”
- How our SBCB ratings and NCAA tournament forecasts work Silver Bulletin (Substack) · 7 March 2025 Own record
“The SBCB numbers are a souped-up version of the Elo rating system, a method with a long history in chess and other fields:”
Reasoning
A Silver Bulletin post dated 3 March 2025 [E2] offers a "teaser" of a "fully working beta version" of the men's SBCB ratings. That indicates the college basketball ratings had not launched before then. The methodology post dated 7 March 2025 [E4] describes SBCB as a souped-up version of the Elo rating system. A later post [E1] says Silver Bulletin then began publishing the men's SBCB ratings. The Elo-based model launched, but after the 31 December 2024 deadline, which the criteria classify as mostly false.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Silver said he would probably begin with college basketball Elo ratings, with a goal of launching by the end of 2024, if not sooner.” (said 7 November 2024). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_69b20f994edf, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_69b20f994edf
Claims without a verdict
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