ClaimsPeople

Nate Silver

Nate Silver is an election forecaster and writer who founded FiveThirtyEight and now publishes the Silver Bulletin newsletter.

617 claims collected, 163 researched, 84 resolved. Report of 10 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    82 76 88

    High confidence, 63 factual claims resolved. From 19 documents, 2012 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 42 unresolvable, 7 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    61 47 75

    Medium confidence, 16 predictions resolved. From 8 documents, 2015 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 12 unresolvable. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    67 46 85

    Low confidence, 5 promises resolved. From 4 documents, 2022 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 7 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nate Silver's claims

617 claims · page 7 of 7

617 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not checkable Not checkable 2015 I have no doubt that some people really love him or that he’d be the favorite if you held a national, winner-take-all Republican primary… Not checkable · 2015
Not checkable Not checkable 2015 It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so. Not checkable · 2015
Resolved false Prediction 2015 Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Prediction · 2015 Other
Mostly true Factual 2015 In presidential primaries, endorsements and party elite support tend to be more reliable indicators of eventual success than early polls. Factual · 2015 Other
Not checkable Not checkable 2015 the “election” these polls describe is hypothetical in at least five ways: Not checkable · 2015
Not checkable Not checkable 2015 More power to the 30 percent: I have plenty of my own issues with the political establishment. Not checkable · 2015
Not checkable Not checkable 2015 no candidate in modern memory has been more skilled at that than Trump Not checkable · 2015
Mostly true Factual 2015 Of Lieberman, Clinton, Giuliani and Perry, only Clinton came close to winning the nomination. Factual · 2015 Other
Mostly true Factual 2015 Even this far out, national primary polls have some correlation with outcomes: a candidate near the top is a somewhat better bet to win the nomination than one near the bottom. Factual · 2015 Science and research methods
Not checkable Not checkable 2015 And you should account for favorability numbers and second-choice preferences, since all but a few candidates will eventually drop out of… Not checkable · 2015
Not checkable Not checkable 2015 At FiveThirtyEight, however, we’re fairly agnostic about what will happen to Trump’s polling in the near term. Not checkable · 2015
Not checkable Not checkable 2015 To the extent that you’re looking at polls, you should probably adjust for name recognition and the amount of media attention a candidate… Not checkable · 2015
Unresolvable Factual 2015 A pitcher's high school statistics do not reveal very much, and their predictive power tends to be swamped by other indicators. Factual · 2015 Science and research methods
Not checkable Not checkable 2015 If it does, this type of populism isn’t actually very popular. Not checkable · 2015
Not checkable Not checkable 2015 This is why it’s exasperating that the mainstream media has become obsessed with how Trump is performing in these polls. Not checkable · 2015
Resolved false Prediction 2015 In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Prediction · 2015 Other
Resolved true Factual 2012 In a 2012 interview, Nate Silver described himself as being somewhere between a liberal and a libertarian. Factual · 2012 Their own work or organisation
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Nate Silver

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Not checkable

“I have no doubt that some people really love him or that he’d be the favorite if you held a national, winner-take-all Republican primary tomorrow.”

Nate Silver 2015 Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination (FiveThirtyEight)

I have no doubt that some people really love him or that he’d be the favorite if you held a national, winner-take-all Republican primary…

Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “I have no doubt that some people really love him or that he’d be the favorite if you held a national, winner-take-all Republican primary…” (said 2015). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_50b6ae37c367, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_50b6ae37c367

Claims without a verdict

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