ClaimsPeople

Nate Silver

Nate Silver is an election forecaster and writer who founded FiveThirtyEight and now publishes the Silver Bulletin newsletter.

617 claims collected, 163 researched, 84 resolved. Report of 10 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    82 76 88

    High confidence, 63 factual claims resolved. From 19 documents, 2012 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 42 unresolvable, 7 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    61 47 75

    Medium confidence, 16 predictions resolved. From 8 documents, 2015 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 12 unresolvable. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    67 46 85

    Low confidence, 5 promises resolved. From 4 documents, 2022 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 7 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nate Silver's claims

617 claims · page 5 of 7

617 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not checkable Not checkable 22 Jun 2021 I also wonder if there are some tipping points. Not checkable · 22 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 22 Jun 2021 Definitely a step in the right direction! Not checkable · 22 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 22 Jun 2021 Yang has clearly faded and Adams is clearly leading Not checkable · 22 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 21 Jun 2021 then maybe progressives need better advocacy groups. Not checkable · 21 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 21 Jun 2021 These prices are probably reasonably fair (though note they add up to >100%). Not checkable · 21 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 21 Jun 2021 this is a pretty simplistic view of how media works Not checkable · 21 Jun 2021
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jun 2021 Eric Adams has led on initial preference in 13 consecutive polls of the NYC mayoral primary. Factual · 21 Jun 2021 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Not checkable 20 Jun 2021 I think it's slightly more likely to produce a winner that reflects the "will of the electorate" than plurality-take-all Not checkable · 20 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 20 Jun 2021 I continue to think the pandemic catalyzed a lot of political developments by forcing us all to become Way Too Online. Not checkable · 20 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 20 Jun 2021 the idea that it leads to more civil campaigning is not looking so hot in the closing days of the NYC mayoral race. Not checkable · 20 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 19 Jun 2021 This is pretty clearly a smart move for both Garcia and Yang. Not checkable · 19 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 19 Jun 2021 I don't think we know very much about this. Not checkable · 19 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 19 Jun 2021 Also arguably a flaw in ranked choice voting that these sorts of strategic alliances can matter. Not checkable · 19 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 18 Jun 2021 it's hard to distinguish the biggest emergencies (such as the potential for GOP electoral subversion in the near future) from more routine… Not checkable · 18 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 17 Jun 2021 Man, not good. Not checkable · 17 Jun 2021
Not researched Factual 16 Jun 2021 Manchin's revisions to the HR1/S1 voting bill are still missing anything really to deal with electoral subversion, such as amending the Electoral Count Act. Factual · 16 Jun 2021 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 16 Jun 2021 The risk of a vaccinated young person getting severely ill from COVID is incredibly low, though not zero. Factual · 16 Jun 2021 Biosecurity
Not checkable Not checkable 15 Jun 2021 I think you have to root for it to keep going Not checkable · 15 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 14 Jun 2021 Pelosi, Schumer and Biden are hugely dropping the ball by not even really trying to take action on this. Not checkable · 14 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 14 Jun 2021 The pandemic wouldn't have been as bad if public health officials had realized most people regard in-person social interaction as… Not checkable · 14 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Jun 2021 Part of the issue for Republicans is that they don't have a lot of examples of recent electoral successes apart from Trump. Not checkable · 12 Jun 2021
Resolved true Prediction 11 Jun 2021 The US could see a rise in COVID cases because of the Delta variant, as in the UK. Prediction · 11 Jun 2021 Biosecurity
Not checkable Not checkable 11 Jun 2021 the threats to democracy are quite serious, but there's only so much you can do with federal legislation when some of the threats come… Not checkable · 11 Jun 2021
Unresolvable Factual 10 Jun 2021 The New York Times has a pretty striking negativity bias in its COVID coverage, even relative to other outlets. Factual · 10 Jun 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Not checkable 10 Jun 2021 Have been trying to read a book while listening to a podcast and I'm pretty sure I have about 0% recall from either. Not checkable · 10 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 9 Jun 2021 I suppose these betting market prices mostly make sense. Not checkable · 9 Jun 2021
Resolved true Factual 9 Jun 2021 A pollster that earlier showed a big bounce for Garcia has now shown a result implying either that the earlier poll was an outlier or that Wiley has taken over her momentum. Factual · 9 Jun 2021 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Not checkable 9 Jun 2021 Honestly liberals should be way madder at Stephen Breyer. Not checkable · 9 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 9 Jun 2021 We're at kind of a weird media moment where fairly conventional center-leftism is seen as contrarian. Not checkable · 9 Jun 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 8 Jun 2021 It's funny that there's so much Trust The Experts™ discourse on COVID but not really on other issues. Not checkable · 8 Jun 2021
Mostly true Factual 8 Jun 2021 The 2020 election forecasts by Nate Silver's team were largely accurate and well-calibrated despite a bad year for the polls. Factual · 8 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 8 Jun 2021 If a whole generation of Republican elected officials believe in the Big Lie (or vouch for it for utilitarian reasons) you've got a long… Not checkable · 8 Jun 2021
Not researched Factual 8 Jun 2021 Nate Silver has published a review of how his 2020 election forecasts performed. Factual · 8 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 31 Mar 2020 Biased since it's from 538, but this is the best explainer you'll find on why building COVID-19 models is challenging. Not checkable · 31 Mar 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 31 Mar 2020 I don't have much patience for claims about which countries are doing better/worse on coronavirus that don't even bother to adjust for… Not checkable · 31 Mar 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 30 Mar 2020 It's because people have to make up pretend reasons why the primary is still competitive. Not checkable · 30 Mar 2020
Not researched Citation 30 Mar 2020 An estimate implies between 800,000 and 3.6 million coronavirus cases in the UK versus 22,000 reported, a 35x to 160x undercount. Citation · 30 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Not checkable Not checkable 30 Mar 2020 It is neither the best-case scenario nor the worst-case scenario, according to outside experts, and reporters need to recognize that the… Not checkable · 30 Mar 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 30 Mar 2020 We can roughly sort countries into places that have handled coronavirus well and handled it badly, and the US is pretty clearly in the… Not checkable · 30 Mar 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 30 Mar 2020 It's not at all beyond question and people who say it's beyond question don't know what they're taking about. Not checkable · 30 Mar 2020
Unresolvable Factual 30 Mar 2020 Biden leads Sanders by 19 points in FiveThirtyEight's national Democratic primary poll average as of 2020-03-30, basically unchanged over several weeks. Factual · 30 Mar 2020 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Factual 29 Mar 2020 As of 2020-03-29, the UK has tested about one-sixth as many people as the US and its detected case count is about one-sixth as high. Factual · 29 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Not checkable Not checkable 29 Mar 2020 The latter is a lot more deserving of scorn. Not checkable · 29 Mar 2020
Not researched Citation 29 Mar 2020 An expert survey conducted about two weeks before 2020-03-29 forecast 200,000 US coronavirus deaths, with a very wide range of possibilities; the forecast was revised slightly upward to 246,000 in the week of 2020-03-29. Citation · 29 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Not checkable Not checkable 29 Mar 2020 I wonder how well interventions designed to stop/discourage people from outdoor exercise would do according to according to a cost-benefit… Not checkable · 29 Mar 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 29 Mar 2020 Because variation in testing makes it hard to know *exactly* what is happening, it's important to account for one's priors, and IMO those… Not checkable · 29 Mar 2020
Not researched Factual 29 Mar 2020 If case detection improves over time, empirically derived R0 estimates from detected case counts will be overestimated. Factual · 29 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Factual 29 Mar 2020 The Netherlands considered a herd immunity strategy and its case fatality rate is now 7% as of 2020-03-29. Factual · 29 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Not checkable Not checkable 29 Mar 2020 re: coronavirus response, I think people probably ought to do a better job of distinguishing Not checkable · 29 Mar 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 29 Mar 2020 Nothing about the general election polling is very interesting right now since (unfortunately) we're still in the fairly early stages of… Not checkable · 29 Mar 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Mar 2020 it remains important to take a multi-day average here. Not checkable · 28 Mar 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Mar 2020 Referring to NYC Metro as a "developing" hot spot isn't really accurate. Not checkable · 28 Mar 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Mar 2020 Yeah this seems important and suggests that a lot of Trump's approval bounce comes from Dems and indies who are trying to express sympathy… Not checkable · 28 Mar 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Mar 2020 I'm someone who thinks NYC's response was much too slow Not checkable · 28 Mar 2020
Mostly true Prediction 28 Mar 2020 The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US. Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 28 Mar 2020 Italy has increased coronavirus testing considerably over the past several days as of 2020-03-28. Factual · 28 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Not checkable Not checkable 27 Mar 2020 it does seem like the bigger issue there *for right now* is a lack of testing among symptomatic or at-risk people, and not necessarily the… Not checkable · 27 Mar 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 27 Mar 2020 The comments by Dr. Birx tonight were really disturbing. Not checkable · 27 Mar 2020
Not researched Factual 27 Mar 2020 Most data suggest NYC residents were more alert to risks and began voluntary social distancing sooner than most places. Factual · 27 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Not checkable Not checkable 27 Mar 2020 Mayor was slow to respond. Federal leaders slower. Not checkable · 27 Mar 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 27 Mar 2020 So either way, the # of hospitalizations is the best short-run metric. Not checkable · 27 Mar 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 27 Mar 2020 In the short run, having lots of (mostly undetected) cases but fewer of them require hospitalization, and having fewer cases but a higher… Not checkable · 27 Mar 2020
Unresolvable Factual 27 Mar 2020 As of 2020-03-27, detected coronavirus cases are increasing faster in red states than in blue states. Factual · 27 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Mar 2020 Almost nothing Joe Biden does in the next few weeks will matter much for the November 2020 election. Prediction · 27 Mar 2020 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Factual 27 Mar 2020 As of late March 2020, the UK has a considerably higher coronavirus death rate than the US, with similar positives per capita. Factual · 27 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Not checkable Not checkable 27 Mar 2020 It's still very hard to make overly precise interpretations about where you are on the curve unless you know a lot about tests: Not checkable · 27 Mar 2020
Unresolvable Factual 27 Mar 2020 As of 2020-03-27, blue states have more detected coronavirus cases than red states. Factual · 27 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Mar 2020 My advice is to wait for 3-4 days' worth of data before declaring a trend, especially a downward trend. Not checkable · 26 Mar 2020
Not researched Factual 26 Mar 2020 NY state hospitalizations rose to 5,327 on 2020-03-26 per Governor Cuomo's press conference, after slower growth in the prior two days. Factual · 26 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Prediction 26 Mar 2020 Experts expect about 117,000 reported coronavirus cases in the US by Sunday 2020-03-29. Prediction · 26 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Not researched Factual 26 Mar 2020 Italy reported 37,000 new tests on 2020-03-26, more than its usual low-to-mid 20,000s. Factual · 26 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Not researched Factual 26 Mar 2020 US testing volume was ramping up very quickly: results from at least 100,000 new tests were reported on 2020-03-26 (a floor, since some tests were still not reported), versus 27,000 a week earlier and 2,200 two weeks earlier. Factual · 26 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Not checkable Not checkable 30 Sep 2019 This seems significant. He's from a pretty R-leaning district (not a swing district as some are saying). Not checkable · 30 Sep 2019
Not checkable Not checkable 30 Sep 2019 One reason I'd be concerned if I were Biden is that Trump & GOP allies have such terrible arguments in defense of his Ukraine conduct that… Not checkable · 30 Sep 2019
Unresolvable Factual 30 Sep 2019 A new poll shows support for impeachment way up and the share who strongly approve of Trump also up, with overall approval roughly unchanged. Factual · 30 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Not checkable 30 Sep 2019 I'm still astounded that the White House released the transcript* given how damaging it was. Not checkable · 30 Sep 2019
Unresolvable Factual 30 Sep 2019 Two new Democratic primary polls released on 2019-09-30 show no negative fallout for Biden from the Ukraine story, and the HarrisX poll has him gaining a couple of points. Factual · 30 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Not checkable 29 Sep 2019 Note that this doesn't mention anything about a quid pro quo and these are still pretty darn bad numbers for Trump. Not checkable · 29 Sep 2019
Not checkable Not checkable 29 Sep 2019 I doubt the Biden campaign actually expects the shows to stop booking Rudy. Not checkable · 29 Sep 2019
Mostly true Factual 29 Sep 2019 Margins of error in individual state and national primary polls on support among black or Hispanic voters are often very high, for example around +/- 10%. Factual · 29 Sep 2019 Science and research methods
Not checkable Not checkable 29 Sep 2019 These GOP defenses of Trump's actions on Ukraine are very thin, and it's hard to see how they convince everyone except for Trump True… Not checkable · 29 Sep 2019
Not checkable Not checkable 27 Sep 2019 The thing is the D primary is (by design) a consensus-oriented system. Not checkable · 27 Sep 2019
Resolved true Factual 27 Sep 2019 Democratic primary delegate allocation is highly proportional, and a candidate eventually needs a majority of delegates to win. Factual · 27 Sep 2019 AI policy and governance
Not checkable Not checkable 27 Sep 2019 I think this is generally one of the better (and more honest) approaches to "electability": Emphasizing the that your plans are popular/the… Not checkable · 27 Sep 2019
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Sep 2019 Working on our own advanced NBA stat makes me think Michael Jordan is actually a little underrated by other advanced metrics and that it's… Not checkable · 26 Sep 2019
Mostly true Factual 26 Sep 2019 In the Democratic primary, a candidate who gets under 15% in a given state or district receives no delegates. Factual · 26 Sep 2019 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Factual 26 Sep 2019 Pete Alonso's 2019 season is basically the closest season ever to Cecil Fielder's 1990 season. Factual · 26 Sep 2019 Other
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Sep 2019 I think Democrats' strategy here has been super dumb, instead of increasing public attention to the substance of the whistleblower's… Not checkable · 26 Sep 2019
Not researched Factual 26 Sep 2019 Silver said impeachment looked like it was becoming much more popular after the Ukraine news and after more Democratic leaders came out in favour of it, and that it was hard to separate the two causes. Factual · 26 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Sep 2019 Weird how an explosive new scandal that caught Trump red-handed working with foreign leaders moved the numbers when 2.5 years of… Not checkable · 26 Sep 2019
Not checkable Not checkable 25 Sep 2019 Her polling has been strong enough over the past week that I don't think even the 1a vs 1b distinction makes sense; they're co-frontrunners. Not checkable · 25 Sep 2019
Not checkable Not checkable 25 Sep 2019 I've mostly been skeptical of the political case for impeachment. Not checkable · 25 Sep 2019
Mostly true Prediction 25 Sep 2019 Nate Silver guessed that the public would see the contents of the Ukraine call transcript as very inappropriate conduct and would find the White House's quid pro quo spin unresponsive to their concerns. Prediction · 25 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Not checkable 25 Sep 2019 Yeah, there are certainly some reasons to think impeachment could become more popular, but the Nixon analogy isn't very strong. Not checkable · 25 Sep 2019
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Sep 2019 In what he called a first, possibly imprudent reaction, Nate Silver said it was hard to see how President Trump would not be impeached, given that the call transcript showed him pressuring Ukraine on Biden. Prediction · 25 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Not checkable 25 Sep 2019 But be wary of constantly believing that the "real" numbers are closer to what you'd like to see, personally. Not checkable · 25 Sep 2019
Not checkable Not checkable 25 Sep 2019 So I think co-frontrunners works best. Not checkable · 25 Sep 2019
Not checkable Not checkable 24 Sep 2019 I think they need to take more seriously how their messaging on Russia impeachment largely failed, despite the public both disliking Trump… Not checkable · 24 Sep 2019
Not checkable Not checkable 24 Sep 2019 The public has a high bar for impeachment also, so it was probably politically wise for Democrats to have a high bar. Not checkable · 24 Sep 2019
Not checkable Not checkable 24 Sep 2019 But Warren rising while trying to unite the various factions of the Democratic Party, and Sanders flat/falling while not playing nice with… Not checkable · 24 Sep 2019
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Nate Silver

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“I also wonder if there are some tipping points.”

Nate Silver 22 June 2021 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2021-06-22 (X)

I also wonder if there are some tipping points.

Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.

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Nate Silver, “I also wonder if there are some tipping points.” (said 22 June 2021). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_9bc932bb3c7c, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9bc932bb3c7c

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