| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
if the models are bought by some third party, I may not have control over pricing.
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Promise |
11 Sep 2023 |
Subscribers to Silver Bulletin will keep paying the price they signed up for as long as they remain continually subscribed, even if the price rises for new subscribers.
Promise · 11 Sep 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
I’m increasingly confident that a newsletter will be part of my future, even if it isn’t the only thing or necessarily the main thing I’m…
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Mostly true |
Promise |
11 Sep 2023 |
Silver Bulletin will publish occasional paywalled posts on other topics for paid subscribers.
Promise · 11 Sep 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
So you’ll see posts about sports, the occasional feisty bit of media criticism, or the things I really care about like food and poker.
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
If this turns into a multi-part series, I might have the first couple of posts be free and paywall the rest of them.
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Mostly true |
Factual |
11 Sep 2023 |
Nate Silver said launching FiveThirtyEight was basically his fourth career, after management consulting, professional poker, and baseball analytics.
Factual · 11 Sep 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Promise |
11 Sep 2023 |
If Nate Silver stops regularly writing Silver Bulletin, he will suspend payment on monthly subscriptions.
Promise · 11 Sep 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
However, the baseline rises with each new subscription.
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
It’s possible that I’ll also eventually publish a version of sports or politics statistical models behind a paywall.
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
There may also eventually be posts about a more technical cluster of topics such as economics, forecasting and AI.
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Resolved true |
Factual |
11 Sep 2023 |
Nate Silver turned on paid subscriptions for the Silver Bulletin newsletter by 11 September 2023.
Factual · 11 Sep 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
If this happens, I’ll do my best to provide discounts for newsletter subscribers
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
If so, that product may be sold separately.
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Resolved true |
Promise |
11 Sep 2023 |
Nate Silver will hold periodic paid-subscriber-only Q&A threads on Silver Bulletin, answering questions from paid subscribers.
Promise · 11 Sep 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Promise |
11 Sep 2023 |
Most answers in the paid Q&A threads on Silver Bulletin will be behind the paywall.
Promise · 11 Sep 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
I was surprised because it was the first time that anybody had mentioned this newsletter specifically.
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Promise |
11 Sep 2023 |
If Nate Silver stops regularly writing Silver Bulletin, he will provide a low-friction option for a prorated refund for annual subscribers.
Promise · 11 Sep 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
I’ve perhaps overindexed on politics-related posts lately — although there will still be plenty of those.
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Own records only |
Factual |
11 Sep 2023 |
The median Silver Bulletin post now gets about the same views as the median post Nate Silver wrote at FiveThirtyEight, with less variance (higher floor, lower ceiling so far).
Factual · 11 Sep 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
I think I can get around that my making the promise rather modest.
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Mostly true |
Factual |
11 Sep 2023 |
On Substack, subscriptions automatically renew at the price the subscriber signed up for.
Factual · 11 Sep 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
I’d been reluctant to do this until now because I didn’t want to overpromise.
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
I’m clearly enjoying writing in this newsletter format,
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
Honest to goodness, no pressure — I really appreciate free subscriptions too
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
if I wind up publishing this newsletter on a platform other than Substack, I’ll just transfer your subscription over, provided i) I can…
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Own records only |
Factual |
11 Sep 2023 |
Substack staff told Nate Silver that suspending monthly payments and prorated annual refunds is relatively easy to do.
Factual · 11 Sep 2023 |
Technology |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
I’m just a happier person when I’m not focused on politics full time, and that will be reflected in the choices here in the newsletter as…
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
paid subscriptions will give me more incentive to write, particularly about the subjects that paid subscribers are interested in.
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Sep 2023 |
Until I’ve settled on a long-term plan, 1) most posts will remain free and 2) posting volume will be highly variable based on my…
Not checkable · 11 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
Don’t get me wrong: this is a very important election.
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
And the general election news cycle may start very early.
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
But unless you’re making trades of some kind, there probably isn’t a lot to be gained from further precision than that right now.
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
But it is much too soon to engage in what Other Nate (Cohn, of the New York Times) calls “crosstab diving”, i.e. scrutinizing the minutiae…
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Mostly false |
Prediction |
8 Sep 2023 |
Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning.
Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
You’re just going to have to live with the uncertainty. And you’re going to have to live with it for some time.
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
Joe Biden could win.
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
Labor Day weekend traditionally marks the beginning of the end of election season, the turn to the final stretch where the news cycle…
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Mostly true |
Factual |
8 Sep 2023 |
The Wall Street Journal polls in partnership between a Republican polling firm and a Democratic polling firm.
Factual · 8 Sep 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
Donald Trump could win.
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Resolved true |
Factual |
8 Sep 2023 |
The polling firm GBAO has done millions of dollars' worth of polling for Democratic clients.
Factual · 8 Sep 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
Not just snowball’s-chance-in-hell possible, but robustly possible.
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
It’s also the point beyond which, if you’re a professional covering the campaign, it becomes hopeless to inject any nuance or uncertainty…
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Resolved true |
Factual |
8 Sep 2023 |
Polls from around September 2015 can be found showing Hillary Clinton with double-digit leads over Donald Trump.
Factual · 8 Sep 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
It is way, way, way too early for any of this shit.
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
The odds of these scenarios do not shift very much from day to day.
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Mixed |
Prediction |
8 Sep 2023 |
Most US voters will not start paying attention to the 2024 presidential election until nine months to a year after September 2023.
Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
with potentially the first repeat matchup since 1956, it may not be a particularly interesting election.
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
Someone other than Biden or Trump could win.
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Resolved true |
Factual |
8 Sep 2023 |
Polling conducted this early in a US presidential cycle has historically had little to no predictive power for the election result.
Factual · 8 Sep 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly false |
Prediction |
8 Sep 2023 |
If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.
Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
There’s not any wisdom to be divined from the cross-tabs of a poll.
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
Anybody who tells you otherwise doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
Well, no shit it has — if you’re a Republican polling firm, there’s a good chance you’ll have done polling for the leading Republican…
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Sep 2023 |
the complaint is every bit as stupid as it sounds
Not checkable · 8 Sep 2023 |
|
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
30 Jun 2022 |
Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up.
Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
30 Jun 2022 |
If Republicans take control of the House in 2023, they are pretty likely to hold COVID panels or investigations.
Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 |
AI policy and governance |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
30 Jun 2022 |
Abortion is probably an issue where there is a rather direct electoral impact
Not checkable · 30 Jun 2022 |
|
| Delivered on time |
Promise |
29 Jun 2022 |
Nate Silver's midterms forecast model will be published soon.
Promise · 29 Jun 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched |
Factual |
29 Jun 2022 |
Even in blue cities like New York, few people are doing much to reduce their COVID infection risk as of June 2022.
Factual · 29 Jun 2022 |
Biosecurity |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
28 Jun 2022 |
It'd be one thing if there were some clear utilitarian case against prosecuting Trump but it seems more like "consequences hard to predict…
Not checkable · 28 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
26 Jun 2022 |
Yes, Roe has electoral implications. Major, unpopular policy changes get punished by the electorate.
Not checkable · 26 Jun 2022 |
|
| Resolved true |
Factual |
24 Jun 2022 |
Public trust in the US Supreme Court is way down in polls as of June 2022.
Factual · 24 Jun 2022 |
AI policy and governance |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
24 Jun 2022 |
Under the 5-4 Roberts majority, the Court largely remained within broad guardrails of public opinion.
Not checkable · 24 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Jun 2022 |
The idea that the US pandemic response was too disaggregated seems like a weird conclusion given the various screw-ups made by the CDC.
Not checkable · 22 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Jun 2022 |
It's still something of an open question whether Trump would have won the GOP nomination in 2016 had the opposition not been so fragmented
Not checkable · 22 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
21 Jun 2022 |
Matching is easier on the Internet—e.g. finding a romantic partner who shares your personality and interests—but there's also nemesis…
Not checkable · 21 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
17 Jun 2022 |
I'm skeptical of his national appeal
Not checkable · 17 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
17 Jun 2022 |
the not-so-subtle subtext of these moves would seem to be that Newsom is testing the waters for a presidential run if Biden retires.
Not checkable · 17 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
14 Jun 2022 |
I think it's still under-appreciated how much opposition to Trump united the various subgroups of liberals, leftists, progressives and…
Not checkable · 14 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
13 Jun 2022 |
My semi-hot take is that both COVID hawks and doves associate COVID prevention with personal sacrifice and overlook win-win solutions that…
Not checkable · 13 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
13 Jun 2022 |
The lack of investment in next-gen vaccines, along with things like better ventilation, is aggravating.
Not checkable · 13 Jun 2022 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
12 Jun 2022 |
Biden will likely get a gun control bill passed but not a voting rights bill.
Prediction · 12 Jun 2022 |
AI policy and governance |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Jun 2022 |
In a democracy, accountability comes principally through voting, so of course the hearings have implications for the midterms.
Not checkable · 12 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Jun 2022 |
I think journalists and political elites are for the most part too polite about discussing the age of candidates.
Not checkable · 11 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Jun 2022 |
To some extent what's weird is that Democrats are going through names that failed in the past, and/or would replicate the reasons they're…
Not checkable · 11 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Jun 2022 |
It's quite reasonable for voters to be concerned about someone in their late 70s or older given the demands of the job.
Not checkable · 11 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
10 Jun 2022 |
In June 2022 betting markets gave Trump a 28% chance of being elected president in 2024, versus 22% for Biden.
Factual · 10 Jun 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Jun 2022 |
The policing of the boundary between what is "political" and what isn't is something nearly everyone is hypocritical about, including me.
Not checkable · 10 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Jun 2022 |
But maybe historians need a better shorthand.
Not checkable · 10 Jun 2022 |
|
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
9 Jun 2022 |
Democrats could hold the Senate in the 2022 midterms if GOP candidates are subpar in a couple of key states or Democrats win the closest races.
Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
9 Jun 2022 |
Democrats holding the House in the 2022 midterms would require an unlikely change in the national environment.
Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
9 Jun 2022 |
The problem with a lot of Democratic messaging about Jan. 6 is that they want to persuade people that it was uniquely bad but then they…
Not checkable · 9 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
8 Jun 2022 |
"Crime decreased, other than murder" is sort of a literal "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln—".
Not checkable · 8 Jun 2022 |
|
| Mixed |
Factual |
6 Jun 2022 |
Senator Susan Collins voted against Trump's position about one-third of the time, including voting to impeach him, and has voted with Biden about one-third of the time.
Factual · 6 Jun 2022 |
AI policy and governance |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
6 Jun 2022 |
"Moderate" and "centrist" are reasonable terms to describe this behavior.
Not checkable · 6 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
5 Jun 2022 |
One of the lowkey worst arguments is when someone complains that society is handling new emerging thing A inconsistently with established…
Not checkable · 5 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
4 Jun 2022 |
IDK on Twitter I'm exposed to "extreme" left-wing and "extreme" right-wing views more often than IRL, so there's a greater diversity of…
Not checkable · 4 Jun 2022 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
31 May 2022 |
The US Omicron COVID wave peaked higher than the Delta wave but was shorter-lived.
Factual · 31 May 2022 |
Biosecurity |
| Mixed |
Factual |
27 May 2022 |
Forgiving all student loan debt is quite unpopular with the public in polls.
Factual · 27 May 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Research failed |
Factual |
27 May 2022 |
Forgiving some student loan debt is reasonably popular.
Factual · 27 May 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
24 May 2022 |
In May 2022, Silver said Trump was not *that* far ahead of DeSantis in polls, and that it was pretty even once name recognition was accounted for.
Factual · 24 May 2022 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
21 May 2022 |
Joe Biden's approval rating never had a spike.
Factual · 21 May 2022 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
21 May 2022 |
parties *trade in* political capital for policy accomplishments, rather than accumulate more of it.
Not checkable · 21 May 2022 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
30 Jun 2021 |
Mayyybe but mutliway primaries are pretty dynamic and campaign strategies were affected by RCV so the whole thing might have played out…
Not checkable · 30 Jun 2021 |
|
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
29 Jun 2021 |
It seems very likely that people who received one dose of the J&J COVID vaccine would benefit from a Pfizer or Moderna booster.
Prediction · 29 Jun 2021 |
Biosecurity |
| Not researched |
Factual |
29 Jun 2021 |
Silver suggested that Yang's endorsement of Garcia as his second choice seemed to matter in the NYC mayoral ranked-choice tabulation, pointing out that Garcia gained ground and overtook Wiley when Yang was eliminated.
Factual · 29 Jun 2021 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
27 Jun 2021 |
Recently there's been the emergence of a small but distinct group of dudes (mostly) on here whom you might call anti-contrarians.
Not checkable · 27 Jun 2021 |
|
| Resolved true |
Factual |
26 Jun 2021 |
If a very high percentage of a group is vaccinated, a fairly high percentage of infections may be among vaccinated people even if the vaccines are highly effective.
Factual · 26 Jun 2021 |
Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
22 Jun 2021 |
A group of scholars convened by Democracy to rewrite the constitution added a wealth tax but did not clarify the presidential line of succession beyond the VP.
Factual · 22 Jun 2021 |
AI policy and governance |