| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
30 Sep 2025 |
If you hear someone saying something once, he is trying to convince you; twice, he is trying to convince himself.
Not checkable · 30 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
29 Sep 2025 |
his looks are unmistakenly Indian, but his name & religion are Portuguese.
Not checkable · 29 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
29 Sep 2025 |
Alas, coming to the conclusion that Dinesh D'Souza @DineshDSouza is a total fraud.
Not checkable · 29 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
28 Sep 2025 |
Assuming that "ancestry" (both Podhoretz & Mileikowsky) is true (it's not)
Not checkable · 28 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
28 Sep 2025 |
All rumors are false until officially denied.
Not checkable · 28 Sep 2025 |
|
| Mostly false |
Factual |
28 Sep 2025 |
The Levant was the most stable area in the world between the early 1800s and 1948, with only skirmishes in 1860.
Factual · 28 Sep 2025 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
28 Sep 2025 |
Predictably: this is a reminder that immigration works only in small quantities; even when the people look superficially the same.
Not checkable · 28 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
27 Sep 2025 |
This is the new Hasbara 2025: spread posts on social media by retards portraying Israel as the Western defense against Islam.
Not checkable · 27 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
27 Sep 2025 |
Censorship & propaganda work only when invisible, as we learned from the Soviet Union.
Not checkable · 27 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
26 Sep 2025 |
Those who know he is bullshitting but have left the room.
Not checkable · 26 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
25 Sep 2025 |
Going to Café de Flore for food (let alone onion soup) is the equivalent of going to Mar-a-Lago to discuss Kant, Algazel, & other topics of…
Not checkable · 25 Sep 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
25 Sep 2025 |
The book listing on Amazon was updated with a total of 50 added pages.
Factual · 25 Sep 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
25 Sep 2025 |
Palestinian Christians have been their biggest victims.
Not checkable · 25 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
25 Sep 2025 |
He will also take Tylenol next accident.
Not checkable · 25 Sep 2025 |
|
| Mixed |
Factual |
25 Sep 2025 |
Taleb's point was that bike lanes improve well-being and happiness without generating economic growth.
Factual · 25 Sep 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
24 Sep 2025 |
So the poor must be imported — reluctantly.
Not checkable · 24 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
24 Sep 2025 |
For the past 9m every time I've seen Trump or any of his myrmidons making an economics statement has prompted me to buy gold-- irresistibly.
Not checkable · 24 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
24 Sep 2025 |
Unreliable & unwise.
Not checkable · 24 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
24 Sep 2025 |
is harder at the top of the S-curve.
Not checkable · 24 Sep 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
24 Sep 2025 |
There has never been a society that welcomed immigration for its own sake.
Factual · 24 Sep 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
24 Sep 2025 |
We end up in the strange situation of xenophobic people importing labor for their own purposes while voting against immigration — a sort of…
Not checkable · 24 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
24 Sep 2025 |
Some of us who do science can help interpreting it.
Not checkable · 24 Sep 2025 |
|
| Mixed |
Factual |
24 Sep 2025 |
Entities in biology and economics grow convexly then slow as they saturate; growth may be unbounded but remains sub-logarithmic.
Factual · 24 Sep 2025 |
Science and research methods |
| Mixed |
Factual |
24 Sep 2025 |
If ancient populations such as hunter-gatherers and Inuit had a high incidence of cardiovascular disease, the unavoidable conclusion is that cardiovascular problems are at least half genetic.
Factual · 24 Sep 2025 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
24 Sep 2025 |
A sharp reduction in immigrant labor supply to the U.S. and Europe would trigger hyperinflation due to nonlinear squeeze effects.
Prediction · 24 Sep 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
24 Sep 2025 |
Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
Not checkable · 24 Sep 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
24 Sep 2025 |
Soon most U.S. government expenditure will go to servicing debt, and the U.S. lacks political mechanisms to correct this.
Prediction · 24 Sep 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
24 Sep 2025 |
Many are discovering,” he said, “that lifestyle improvements, such as bicycling paths and pedestrian- and cyclist-friendly cities, may not…
Not checkable · 24 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
23 Sep 2025 |
Lifetime observation: the fancier the restaurant, the fewer the smiles—and even fewer the laughs.
Not checkable · 23 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
23 Sep 2025 |
Nuances are too difficult for electronic tulip peddlers.
Not checkable · 23 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Sep 2025 |
Over a lifespan I’ve observed that people who are petty, argumentative, competitive, envious, & grudging tend to—actually, always—fail…
Not checkable · 22 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Sep 2025 |
Term shd be Judeophobe, just like Islamophobe & Christophobe.
Not checkable · 22 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Sep 2025 |
Markets are perverse; they trap people.
Not checkable · 22 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Sep 2025 |
The car may degrade with time, but the driver gets better.
Not checkable · 22 Sep 2025 |
|
| Resolved true |
Factual |
22 Sep 2025 |
Spitz has been bullish on markets for the past 3 years.
Factual · 22 Sep 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
22 Sep 2025 |
Taleb still uses Medium for publishing, and many people recommend Substack.
Factual · 22 Sep 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Sep 2025 |
Focusing on aging & the physical brain (particularly age-related shrinkage) is misleading.
Not checkable · 22 Sep 2025 |
|
| Mostly true |
Factual |
21 Sep 2025 |
The 3rd edition of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails is available and adds 3 chapters and an appendix on Max Entropy distributions including Tsallis Entropy.
Factual · 21 Sep 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
21 Sep 2025 |
Life is dynamic, not static.
Not checkable · 21 Sep 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
21 Sep 2025 |
Antifragile, published 13 years earlier, is on the NYT bestseller list the weekend of 2025-09-21.
Factual · 21 Sep 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
19 Sep 2025 |
Saudi Arabia has entered a NATO-like Islamic alliance with Pakistan, which has nuclear weapons, and is part of a group of friends of China.
Factual · 19 Sep 2025 |
Other |
| Mixed |
Factual |
19 Sep 2025 |
Scientists who come up with new ideas and frameworks are more often experienced researchers than young ones.
Factual · 19 Sep 2025 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
19 Sep 2025 |
Egypt will be next to join the Saudi-Pakistan alliance, and Turkey will soon join informally.
Prediction · 19 Sep 2025 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
19 Sep 2025 |
When you use nonlinear curves, the R^2 has no more meaning (multiple testing) & no longer unique least square.
Not checkable · 19 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
19 Sep 2025 |
It is like flaneuring but not necessarily outside your office.
Not checkable · 19 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
19 Sep 2025 |
Psych Journals are not rigorous (e.g. IQ)
Not checkable · 19 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
18 Sep 2025 |
I am monstrously impressed! Unlike your finance idiot, Grok gets the nuances!
Not checkable · 18 Sep 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
31 Mar 2024 |
One would think the conflict is between nationalism and universalism; but in reality the conflict is between nationalism and another…
Not checkable · 31 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
31 Mar 2024 |
An observation: once Westerners start becoming neutral or slightly pro-Palestinian, they tend to become progressively more and more…
Not checkable · 31 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
31 Mar 2024 |
Antifragility = local convexity/asymmetry, which explains hormesis.
Not checkable · 31 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
31 Mar 2024 |
That's the correct way to think about it.
Not checkable · 31 Mar 2024 |
|
| Mostly true |
Factual |
30 Mar 2024 |
The city of Jerusalem is not mentioned even once in the Pentateuch.
Factual · 30 Mar 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
30 Mar 2024 |
Others pushed it under the rug.
Not checkable · 30 Mar 2024 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
30 Mar 2024 |
Daniel Kahneman was the only psychologist who acknowledged the problem of fat tails.
Factual · 30 Mar 2024 |
Science and research methods |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
30 Mar 2024 |
(The common academic belief that tail probabilities are "overpriced" makes no sense under F Tails, and he knew it.)
Not checkable · 30 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
29 Mar 2024 |
For an essay, read the text and skip the footnotes.
Not checkable · 29 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
28 Mar 2024 |
It's all about him. It's not about the victims.
Not checkable · 28 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
28 Mar 2024 |
Most people knew him as a thinker. I knew him as a person.
Not checkable · 28 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
27 Mar 2024 |
Converging over time is healthy, diverging is not.
Not checkable · 27 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
26 Mar 2024 |
Golfers are only 18%.
Not checkable · 26 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
25 Mar 2024 |
If all Bedouins have 2 eyes, not all those who have 2 eyes are Bedouin.
Not checkable · 25 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
25 Mar 2024 |
Trump is playing it in a clever way, avoiding to allienate both Muslim and Jewish voters upset with Genocied Joe.
Not checkable · 25 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
24 Mar 2024 |
If all Frenchmen have 2 eyes, having 2 eyes does not imply being French.
Not checkable · 24 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
24 Mar 2024 |
Classical generator behind Fooled by Randomness: affirming the consequent.
Not checkable · 24 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
24 Mar 2024 |
Noticed a certain number of propaganda accounts that don't follow you but jump on your thread when you mention "Palestinian"; the hasbara…
Not checkable · 24 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
23 Mar 2024 |
Why AI bothers some people: most humans love the soothing rythms of the routine, prefer to expend physical rather than intellectual energy.
Not checkable · 23 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
23 Mar 2024 |
Figured out chatting with Syrian workers why some Bedouins can cooperate with the Israelis.
Not checkable · 23 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
23 Mar 2024 |
By definition, being nomads, they have no attachment to land; their allegiance is to the tribe, unlike the dispossessed Palestinians who…
Not checkable · 23 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Mar 2024 |
Predictably, virtue positioning is steadily shifting from pro-Israel to pro-Palestinian.
Not checkable · 22 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Mar 2024 |
Just reduce the number of things you read that you wouldn't reread a decade (or more) from now.
Not checkable · 22 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Mar 2024 |
Not by actively studying boring or nonboring material.
Not checkable · 22 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Mar 2024 |
Ten years later, still on it.
Not checkable · 22 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
21 Mar 2024 |
If this chart does not jolt you you don't understand dynamics.
Not checkable · 21 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Mar 2024 |
Tail probabilities require >> samples.
Not checkable · 20 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Mar 2024 |
I guess a cigarette for breakfast may not help.
Not checkable · 20 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
19 Mar 2024 |
Bye-bye glyphosate => Bye-bye GMOs
Not checkable · 19 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
19 Mar 2024 |
Yes, I heard about this. Trying to figure out the puzzle.
Not checkable · 19 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
18 Mar 2024 |
A similar problem to the one that fooled psycholobullshitters (including @r_thaler) into the bogus "hot hand fallacy".
Not checkable · 18 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
18 Mar 2024 |
Alice has a higher expected average, but is expected to lose.
Not checkable · 18 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
18 Mar 2024 |
They just packaged it as a "burger" but it is legit, unlike the fake meat w/additives.
Not checkable · 18 Mar 2024 |
|
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Mar 2024 |
Chef Alain Ducasse in France has recently offered a bulgur or quinoa and vegetable dish resembling the "Lent Kibbeh", packaged as a "burger".
Factual · 18 Mar 2024 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
18 Mar 2024 |
Probability is hard.
Not checkable · 18 Mar 2024 |
|
| Resolved true |
Factual |
18 Mar 2024 |
Nassim Taleb has no connection to the website "nassimtaleb.org".
Factual · 18 Mar 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
17 Mar 2024 |
I also like to surprise myself.
Not checkable · 17 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
17 Mar 2024 |
I actually enjoy the act of writing provided it is done on my own terms, of course, not following some editor's directive.
Not checkable · 17 Mar 2024 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2023 |
For, as it stands, we see neither theoretical nor
Not checkable · 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2023 |
Just as warning is not predicting, understanding distribution
Not checkable · 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2023 |
So the burden is on forecasters to forecast.
Not checkable · 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2023 |
comes to conflicts, forecasts for tail events are not compatible
Not checkable · 2023 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2023 |
The partial expectation GK maps to higher moments, up to the infinite moment (the extremum) dealt with in extreme value theory.
Factual · 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
2023 |
The exceedance probability PK corresponds to the zeroeth moment and is always thin-tailed.
Factual · 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2023 |
Alas "probability" is a mathematical concept that
Not checkable · 2023 |
|
| Resolved true |
Factual |
2023 |
The exceedance probability PK, as a random variable bounded between 0 and 1, necessarily has thin tails with finite mean, variance and all moments.
Factual · 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2023 |
We apologize for not answering most of their points as these
Not checkable · 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2023 |
about search for knowledge and understanding the world,
Not checkable · 2023 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2023 |
And we
Not checkable · 2023 |
|
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2023 |
If tail probability PK does not hedge tail expectation GK, then skill at predicting PK provides no information on GK.
Factual · 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Mixed |
Factual |
2023 |
Binary options on financial instruments proved of little economic value and are not considered an investment in the U.S. and the European Union.
Factual · 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2023 |
general claim – this bizarre demand on the part of professional
Not checkable · 2023 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2023 |
Error in the evaluation of the probability PK can translate into an explosive error in the corresponding threshold K, more so the fatter-tailed the distribution.
Factual · 2023 |
Science and research methods |