| Mostly true |
Factual |
21 Sep 2025 |
The 3rd edition of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails is available and adds 3 chapters and an appendix on Max Entropy distributions including Tsallis Entropy.
Factual · 21 Sep 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
30 Mar 2024 |
The city of Jerusalem is not mentioned even once in the Pentateuch.
Factual · 30 Mar 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Mar 2024 |
Chef Alain Ducasse in France has recently offered a bulgur or quinoa and vegetable dish resembling the "Lent Kibbeh", packaged as a "burger".
Factual · 18 Mar 2024 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2023 |
If tail probability PK does not hedge tail expectation GK, then skill at predicting PK provides no information on GK.
Factual · 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2023 |
Binary options are banned by most corresponding regulators in the U.S. and the European Union because they are considered gambling devices.
Factual · 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2023 |
A sum of such bets, whose probabilities are modelled with a Uniform or Beta distribution, becomes Gaussian rapidly.
Factual · 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Nov 2021 |
Shiite Islam shares many features with Christianity, such as a twelve-based structure, the last of whom is associated with Jesus, and self-flagellation rituals commemorating martyrdom.
Factual · Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Nov 2021 |
Orthodox Christianity has stiffer dietary laws than Western Christianity, with veganism more than 200 days per year.
Factual · Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Nov 2021 |
Darwinian ideas of evolutionary differences within species naturally lead to notions of eugenics, that humans can improve the race by speeding evolution.
Factual · Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Nov 2021 |
The Enlightenment, with the growth of 'science', started finding statistical differences in abilities between people of different races.
Factual · Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Nov 2021 |
Emperor Julian did not realize that paganism was a decentralized, overlapping set of club-like affiliations to gods, and tried to organize it like the Church.
Factual · Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
29 Dec 2020 |
A part of Fooled by Randomness was inspired by the psychology of Lebanese depositors who enjoyed steady and high returns.
Factual · 29 Dec 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
29 Dec 2020 |
The new US Dietary Guidelines were negotiated with lobbyists from the food industry, with sugar vendors treated as stakeholders.
Factual · 29 Dec 2020 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jul 2020 |
For COVID-19 survivors, the illness is a large economic drain, from lost working hours alone, not counting hospitalization costs.
Factual · Jul 2020 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
30 Dec 2019 |
In 2019 Taleb gave a lecture in Lebanese, "From Ponzi to Localism", at USJ, broadcast on Lebanese TV during the riots.
Factual · 30 Dec 2019 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
29 Dec 2019 |
It is almost always different people who are getting richer, owing to rotation at the top of the wealth distribution.
Factual · 29 Dec 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
29 Dec 2019 |
The richest 1% of people in 2019 are not quite the same individuals as the richest 1% of 2009.
Factual · 29 Dec 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
22 Dec 2019 |
Levantine Arabic is not a dialect of Classical Arabic (Fus7a), according to the works of @Safaitic and @PhDniX.
Factual · 22 Dec 2019 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2019 |
In Hayek's account, knowledge is consolidated via prices and arbitrageurs, who trade products, services and financial securities, not binary bets.
Factual · 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2019 |
Value at Risk is not a coherent risk measure because it violates subadditivity.
Factual · 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2019 |
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) satisfies the coherence (subadditivity) bound.
Factual · 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2019 |
Most natural and socio-economic variables are continuous and have no compact support, so no exact upper bound is known.
Factual · 2019 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2019 |
The expected value of collateral conditional on default is often far lower than its unconditional expectation.
Factual · 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
11 Apr 2018 |
Only a third of Roman emperors died in their bed.
Factual · 11 Apr 2018 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
11 Apr 2018 |
It had been reported that Donald Trump lost a billion dollars of his own money.
Factual · 11 Apr 2018 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
10 Jul 2017 |
Taleb said he believes a minimum wage is definitely a cause of more unemployment, more use of robots, or jobs moving to places with lower wages.
Factual · 10 Jul 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
10 Jul 2017 |
Skin in the Game is Volume 5 of Taleb's Incerto.
Factual · 10 Jul 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
10 Jul 2017 |
In Switzerland, authorities go to the local population and ask what they want on such matters.
Factual · 10 Jul 2017 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
10 Jul 2017 |
Contrary to what political scientists say, people in practice do exercise the right to leave a jurisdiction.
Factual · 10 Jul 2017 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
10 Jul 2017 |
Fooled by Randomness is close to 20 years old.
Factual · 10 Jul 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
11 Apr 2017 |
Church councils such as Nicea and Chalcedon and various synods of bishops insisted on the dual nature (man and god) of Jesus Christ.
Factual · 11 Apr 2017 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 May 2015 |
A study of inter-arrival times between tail conflict events finds that no particular trend can be asserted.
Factual · 18 May 2015 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 May 2015 |
Naive observation of conflict data severely underestimates the tail risks of conflicts.
Factual · 18 May 2015 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 May 2015 |
The paper examines statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years and develops techniques for handling incomplete and unreliable historical data.
Factual · 18 May 2015 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
24 Dec 2014 |
Traditional portfolio construction in modern financial theory has operated under at least one of two assumptions: constraints derived from a utility function and/or a fully known multivariate distribution of asset returns.
Factual · 24 Dec 2014 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
24 Dec 2014 |
Under the paper's construction, the barbell payoff (maximal certainty/low risk on one side, maximum uncertainty on the other) emerges naturally.
Factual · 24 Dec 2014 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Dec 2012 |
Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science.
Factual · 12 Dec 2012 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jan 2009 |
Banks positioned themselves with no real upside and a lot of downside from black swans, receiving a little cash flow in exchange for bearing all the downside.
Factual · 12 Jan 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jan 2009 |
Taleb warned that financial theories, financial-risk managers and quantitative finance practitioners were dangerous to society.
Factual · 12 Jan 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jan 2009 |
Taleb says that in The Black Swan he warned against some classes of risk people don't understand and against risk managers' tools that could not fully capture the properties of the world in which we live.
Factual · 12 Jan 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jan 2009 |
Before Europeans discovered Australia, Europeans had no reason to believe swans could be any colour other than white, and on seeing black swans they revised their beliefs.
Factual · 12 Jan 2009 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jan 2009 |
In the 1920s the German mark went from three marks to the dollar to three trillion marks to the dollar in a very short time.
Factual · 12 Jan 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jan 2009 |
The Internet was not built to help people communicate in chat rooms; it began as a military application and evolved.
Factual · 12 Jan 2009 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jan 2009 |
Taleb said the financial crisis occurred because people took many hidden risks, which meant a small blip could have massive consequences.
Factual · 12 Jan 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2009 |
The public bore the cost of banking crises in 1983 and in 1991-1992.
Factual · 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2009 |
Taleb said the only important thing was that he had protected his clients.
Factual · 2009 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
3 Apr 2008 |
Today the entire banking system is dominated by a few very large banks, and almost all of them have the same exposures.
Factual · 3 Apr 2008 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
3 Apr 2008 |
Taleb said that a point he had just made, which mentioned J.P. Morgan, turned out to be true with the Bear Stearns rescue.
Factual · 3 Apr 2008 |
Economics and markets |