Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
75 61 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 2 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 75 (likely 61 to 88, low confidence), from 12 claims: 12 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Jim Cramer's claims
“Fitting worst first half since 1970 given that we are in fighting inflation mode”
Jim Cramer, writing on X 30 June 2022 Post by @jimcramer on X, 2022-06-30 (X)
The first half of 2022 was the worst first half for the stock market since 1970.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
Judge on the S&P 500 price index as the standard measure of "the stock market". True: the S&P 500's percentage change from 31 Dec 2021 to 30 Jun 2022 was the worst first-half performance since the first half of 1970, with no first half between 1971 and 2021 worse. Mostly true: it was the worst since 1970 on the S&P 500 but not on another major index, or it was the worst since a year within about one year of 1970. Mostly false: it was among the worst first halves but a first half between 1971 and 2021 was worse on the S&P 500. False: the first half of 2022 was not an unusually bad first half, or several later first halves were worse.
Evidence
- Stocks close their worst first half in 52 years, here’s what you need to know | CNN Business CNN · 30 June 2022
“The S&P 500 printed its worst half-year since 1970, the Dow had its largest first-half drop since 1962 and the Nasdaq had its largest percentage drop ever.”
- Stocks close their worst first half in 52 years, here’s what you need to know | CNN Business CNN · 30 June 2022
“The S&P 500 (SBSPX) has posted its worst first half in more than 50 years, dropping 20.6% during the first 6 months of 2022.”
- 2022 stock market decline - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“In the first 6 months of 2022, the S&P 500 fell 21%, the worst 6-month start to a year since 1970.”
- Investors have endured a brutal six months The Irish Times · 12 July 2022
“The S&P 500 sank 20 per cent, its worst start to a year since 1970.”
Reasoning
CNN reports that the S&P 500 fell 20.6% in the first six months of 2022, its worst first half in more than 50 years and its worst half-year since 1970 (E1, E2). Wikipedia and The Irish Times separately describe this as the S&P 500's worst start to a year since 1970 (E3, E4). These independent sources all agree that no first half from 1971 to 2021 was worse on the S&P 500, which meets the criteria for true.
Cite this claim
Jim Cramer, “The first half of 2022 was the worst first half for the stock market since 1970.” (said 30 June 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_60e1fb6ee160, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_60e1fb6ee160
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Jim Cramer? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.