Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
75 61 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 2 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 75 (likely 61 to 88, low confidence), from 12 claims: 12 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Jim Cramer's claims
““Companies just reported their earnings and they shined,” he said.”
Jim Cramer, RealMoney radio host 20 November 2006 RealMoney Radio: Amazing Market Grace (TheStreet)
Companies' third-quarter 2006 earnings reports, just released as of 20 November 2006, were strong.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
Judge on Q3 2006 earnings for US companies broadly (the S&P 500) as reported by November 2006. True: aggregate S&P 500 Q3 2006 earnings showed strong growth (roughly double-digit year-on-year) and/or a clear majority of companies beat estimates, as described in contemporaneous summaries (Thomson Financial, FactSet or similar). Mostly true: earnings were solidly positive but somewhat below "shining", for example high single-digit growth with most companies beating estimates. Mixed: results were mixed, with modest growth or a roughly even split of beats and misses. Mostly false: earnings were weak overall, with only some sectors strong. False: aggregate Q3 2006 earnings declined or broadly disappointed.
Evidence
- US profits rise 23% in Q3, but pace may slow Economic Times (India), reporting from Dallas · 6 November 2006
“Third-Quarter earnings of US companies rose an average of 23%, led by investment banks including Goldman Sachs Group and insurer Allstate.”
- US profits rise 23% in Q3, but pace may slow Economic Times (India), reporting from Dallas · 6 November 2006
“Lagging in the quarter were the health-care, consumer discretionary and information technology groups, with average growth of between 9% and 11%.”
- S&P 500 profits manage to reach major milestone Chicago Tribune · 7 November 2006
“The $203.3 billion in third-quarter profits is up nearly 20 percent from the $169.9 billion in profits the S&P 500 companies posted in last year’s third quarter.”
- Market Records a Boon for Companies, but What About Workers? ABC News · 24 October 2006
“The latest figures from Thomson Financial show that third quarter corporate profits are up 15.9 percent, with almost half of all companies reporting.”
Reasoning
E3 (Chicago Tribune, 7 Nov 2006) says S&P 500 third-quarter profits were $203.3 billion, up nearly 20% from $169.9 billion a year earlier. E1 (Economic Times, 6 Nov 2006) says third-quarter earnings of US companies rose an average of 23%. E4 (ABC News, 24 Oct 2006) gives an earlier Thomson Financial reading of 15.9% growth with almost half of companies reported. E2 notes that even the lagging sectors grew 9–11% on average, while E1 and E3 report aggregate growth of about 20–23%, which meets the criteria for "true".
Cite this claim
Jim Cramer, “Companies' third-quarter 2006 earnings reports, just released as of 20 November 2006, were strong.” (said 20 November 2006). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_035f344fc036, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_035f344fc036
Claims without a verdict
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