ClaimsPeople

GiveWell

GiveWell is a US-based nonprofit charity evaluator that researches and recommends high-impact giving opportunities, mainly in global health and poverty reduction.

190 claims collected, 76 researched, 23 resolved. Report of 10 October 2026, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    76 63 88

    Medium confidence, 15 factual claims resolved. From 7 documents, 2010 to 2026; 8 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 13 unresolvable, 25 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    Insufficient record: 1 prediction resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 5 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 2 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    70 52 87

    Low confidence, 7 promises resolved. From 3 documents, 2010 to 2022; 8 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 4 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 64 to 84, medium confidence), from 22 claims: 15 factual claims, 7 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

GiveWell's claims

1 claim

1 claim, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved false Factual 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell is launching a contest for critiques of its cost-effectiveness analyses. Factual · 6 Apr 2022 Science and research methods
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GiveWell

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Factual Science and research methods

“GiveWell is launching a contest for critiques of our cost-effectiveness analyses.”

GiveWell, unsigned organisational page 6 April 2022 GiveWell's Change Our Mind Contest (GiveWell)

GiveWell is launching a contest for critiques of its cost-effectiveness analyses.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

What would count as true or false

True: on or about 2022-04-06 GiveWell announced or opened a contest that invites critiques of its cost-effectiveness analyses, with entries solicited. Mostly true: the contest was launched as described, with a minor discrepancy in timing (within a few days) or in naming. Mixed is not normally applicable. Mostly false: what was launched was not a contest (for example an informal request for feedback), or its target was not the cost-effectiveness analyses. False: no such contest was launched at that time, for example a record showing it was only planned for much later or was cancelled before launch.

Evidence

  1. September Newsletter 2022 Giving What We Can · 29 September 2022
    “GiveWell is launching a “Change Our Mind” contest to solicit critiques of its cost-effectiveness analyses that could improve its allocations. Entries are due by October 31st.”
  2. All GiveWell Blog Posts GiveWell · 6 September 2022 Own record
    “Announcing the Change Our Mind Contest for critiques of our cost-effectiveness analyses (9/6/22)”
  3. 1 The Clear Fund dba GiveWell Own record
    “The Contest entry period begins at 12:00 a.m. PDT on September 6, 2022 and ends at 11:59 p.m. PDT on October 31, 2022”
  4. All GiveWell Blog Posts GiveWell · 6 April 2022 Own record
    “A major update in our assessment of water quality interventions (4/6/2022)”

Reasoning

GiveWell's blog index dates the announcement of the Change Our Mind contest for critiques of its cost-effectiveness analyses to 6 September 2022 (E2). The contest terms set the entry period as starting 6 September 2022 (E3). An independent newsletter from late September 2022 describes the contest as launching then (E1). The only GiveWell post dated 6 April 2022 concerns water quality interventions, not a contest (E4). The contest was therefore not launched on or about the claim date but about five months later, which the criteria treat as false.

Cite this claim

GiveWell, “GiveWell is launching a contest for critiques of its cost-effectiveness analyses.” (said 6 April 2022). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_9357560ff7a6, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9357560ff7a6

Claims without a verdict

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