Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
76 63 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 1 prediction resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
70 52 87
All types combined: 74 (likely 64 to 84, medium confidence), from 22 claims: 15 factual claims, 7 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
GiveWell's claims
“Each entry will be reviewed by at least one GiveWell researcher who has substantial experience with our cost-effectiveness analyses.”
GiveWell, unsigned organisational page 6 April 2022 GiveWell's Change Our Mind Contest (GiveWell)
Each contest entry will be reviewed by at least one GiveWell researcher with substantial experience with its cost-effectiveness analyses.
Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.
Reasoning
Internal review assignments of entries are not publicly recorded.
Cite this claim
GiveWell, “Each contest entry will be reviewed by at least one GiveWell researcher with substantial experience with its cost-effectiveness analyses.” (said 6 April 2022). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_07c57b70d1e5, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_07c57b70d1e5
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for GiveWell? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.