ClaimsPeople

GiveWell

GiveWell is a US-based nonprofit charity evaluator that researches and recommends high-impact giving opportunities, mainly in global health and poverty reduction.

190 claims collected, 76 researched, 23 resolved. Report of 10 October 2026, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    76 63 88

    Medium confidence, 15 factual claims resolved. From 7 documents, 2010 to 2026; 8 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 13 unresolvable, 25 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    Insufficient record: 1 prediction resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 5 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 2 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    70 52 87

    Low confidence, 7 promises resolved. From 3 documents, 2010 to 2022; 8 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 4 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 64 to 84, medium confidence), from 22 claims: 15 factual claims, 7 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

GiveWell's claims

10 claims

10 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell expects to direct nearly three times as much malaria funding in 2026 as in 2025. Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 30 Sep 2026 Gaps in the global supply of family planning products are large and growing, and GiveWell expects its funding to make more contraceptives available to people who want them. Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Prediction 30 Sep 2026 The programs GiveWell funded with 2025 donations will save about 86,000 lives in total. Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell estimates that programs supported by the funds it directed in 2025 will save an additional 86,000 lives. Prediction · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell's total grantmaking in 2026 is likely to approach or exceed $1 billion. Prediction · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell likely will not be able to share a full response to all contest entries, due to limited research capacity. Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Apr 2022 Excellent contest entries may lead to changes in how GiveWell allocates millions of dollars of funding. Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Apr 2022 Most strong contest entries will focus on one of the six listed programs. Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Apr 2022 Contest entries focused on the six listed programs will likely have a higher chance of meaningfully influencing GiveWell's overall allocation of funding. Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 28 May 2020 Much of GiveWell's work in 2020 will go forward as anticipated. Prediction · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
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GiveWell

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Prediction Their own work or organisation

“We’re going deeper in areas we know well, such as malaria—where we expect to direct nearly three times as much funding this year as we did last year.”

GiveWell, unsigned newsletter 30 September 2026 September 2026 Updates (The GiveWell Blog)

GiveWell expects to direct nearly three times as much malaria funding in 2026 as in 2025.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2026 is after 2026-10-10

Cite this claim

GiveWell, “GiveWell expects to direct nearly three times as much malaria funding in 2026 as in 2025.” (said 30 September 2026). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_484fb5344a15, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_484fb5344a15

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for GiveWell? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.