GiveWell: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

76 63 88

Medium confidence, 15 factual claims resolved. From 7 documents, 2010 to 2026; 8 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

Not scored: 13 unresolvable, 25 checkable only against their own records.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Insufficient record: 1 prediction resolved, 5 needed for a score.

Not scored: 5 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 2 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions
Promises

Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

70 52 87

Low confidence, 7 promises resolved. From 3 documents, 2010 to 2022; 8 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

Not scored: 4 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records.

See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 64 to 84, medium confidence), from 22 claims: 15 factual claims, 7 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

GiveWell's claims

76 claims

76 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Not yet due	Prediction	30 Sep 2026	GiveWell expects to direct nearly three times as much malaria funding in 2026 as in 2025. Prediction · 30 Sep 2026	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	30 Sep 2026	The three Senior Communications Officer roles will be the first of their kind at GiveWell. Factual · 30 Sep 2026	Field building and careers
Unresolvable	Prediction	30 Sep 2026	Gaps in the global supply of family planning products are large and growing, and GiveWell expects its funding to make more contraceptives available to people who want them. Prediction · 30 Sep 2026	Biosecurity
Own records only	Factual	30 Sep 2026	Over the past two years GiveWell increased its research team from 38 people to 85 and is continuing to hire across the organization. Factual · 30 Sep 2026	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	30 Sep 2026	GiveWell's Cross-Cutting research subteam investigates the impact of funded programs, works to resolve the largest uncertainties, and strengthens data collection and analysis. Factual · 30 Sep 2026	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	30 Sep 2026	GiveWell's 2025 fundraising of $616 million was its largest fundraising year to date. Factual · 30 Sep 2026	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	30 Sep 2026	More than four million children under five die each year in low- and middle-income countries, and most of those deaths are preventable. Factual · 30 Sep 2026	Biosecurity
Unresolvable	Prediction	30 Sep 2026	The programs GiveWell funded with 2025 donations will save about 86,000 lives in total. Prediction · 30 Sep 2026	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	31 Aug 2026	GiveWell responded in 2025 to urgent needs generated by foreign aid cuts. Factual · 31 Aug 2026	Economics and markets
Own records only	Prediction	31 Aug 2026	GiveWell estimates that programs supported by the funds it directed in 2025 will save an additional 86,000 lives. Prediction · 31 Aug 2026	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	31 Aug 2026	GiveWell has spent years growing its research capacity and scope to direct significantly more funding to the most impactful opportunities, and 2025 was a milestone in that growth. Factual · 31 Aug 2026	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	31 Aug 2026	Around $124 million (29% of funds directed) in 2025 went to GiveWell's four Top Charities. Factual · 31 Aug 2026	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	31 Aug 2026	In 2025 GiveWell directed around $427 million to high-impact programs and organizations, an 8% increase in funds directed compared to 2024. Factual · 31 Aug 2026	Their own work or organisation
Not yet due	Prediction	31 Aug 2026	GiveWell's total grantmaking in 2026 is likely to approach or exceed $1 billion. Prediction · 31 Aug 2026	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Promise	6 Apr 2022	Each contest entry will be reviewed by at least one GiveWell researcher with substantial experience with its cost-effectiveness analyses. Promise · 6 Apr 2022	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Promise	6 Apr 2022	GiveWell will publish winning contest entries online, anonymously if requested. Promise · 6 Apr 2022	Science and research methods
Resolved true	Prediction	6 Apr 2022	GiveWell likely will not be able to share a full response to all contest entries, due to limited research capacity. Prediction · 6 Apr 2022	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	6 Apr 2022	Each of the six listed analyses relates to a program to which GiveWell has directed substantial funding (generally tens of millions of dollars) and which it intends to consider for substantial future funding. Factual · 6 Apr 2022	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	6 Apr 2022	Excellent contest entries may lead to changes in how GiveWell allocates millions of dollars of funding. Prediction · 6 Apr 2022	Science and research methods
Delivered on time	Promise	6 Apr 2022	GiveWell will announce contest winners by December 15, 2022. Promise · 6 Apr 2022	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Promise	6 Apr 2022	GiveWell will give a $500 participation prize to other qualifying entries, capped at 50 prizes for the first 50 submissions. Promise · 6 Apr 2022	Science and research methods
Unresolvable	Prediction	6 Apr 2022	Most strong contest entries will focus on one of the six listed programs. Prediction · 6 Apr 2022	Their own work or organisation
Resolved false	Factual	6 Apr 2022	GiveWell is launching a contest for critiques of its cost-effectiveness analyses. Factual · 6 Apr 2022	Science and research methods
Unresolvable	Promise	6 Apr 2022	GiveWell will share a full, substantive response to the winning and runner-up contest entries. Promise · 6 Apr 2022	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	6 Apr 2022	GiveWell makes its cost-effectiveness analyses publicly available. Factual · 6 Apr 2022	Science and research methods
Delivered on time	Promise	6 Apr 2022	GiveWell will award $20,000 to the first-place entry, $10,000 to the runner-up and $5,000 to the honorable mention in its contest. Promise · 6 Apr 2022	Science and research methods
Unresolvable	Prediction	6 Apr 2022	Contest entries focused on the six listed programs will likely have a higher chance of meaningfully influencing GiveWell's overall allocation of funding. Prediction · 6 Apr 2022	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	28 May 2020	GiveWell shares its plans for the year each spring. Factual · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	28 May 2020	GiveWell staff may work remotely and GiveWell accommodates flexible work schedules, including flexible hours. Factual · 28 May 2020	Field building and careers
Own records only	Factual	28 May 2020	Many of GiveWell's successful past hires came through the community of people who engage with its work. Factual · 28 May 2020	Field building and careers
Mostly false	Promise	28 May 2020	GiveWell hopes to conduct in-depth reviews of one to two other charities in 2020, most likely Precision Agriculture for Development and/or Sanku, but may have limited capacity due to COVID-19 work. Promise · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	28 May 2020	GiveWell's investigation of a potential alcohol policy grant was delayed because the potential grantee shifted its focus to COVID-19 response. Factual · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Promise	28 May 2020	GiveWell will make additional COVID-19 response grants if it believes they are more cost-effective than the opportunities to which it would otherwise direct funds. Promise · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	28 May 2020	As of 28 May 2020, GiveWell had made three grants for COVID-19 mitigation. Factual · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Prediction	28 May 2020	Much of GiveWell's work in 2020 will go forward as anticipated. Prediction · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	28 May 2020	GiveWell made limited progress in 2019 in assessing public health regulation, a relatively new domain for it. Factual · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Promise	28 May 2020	After completing its alcohol policy grant investigation, GiveWell will reflect on what it has learned about public health regulation before deciding whether to do additional work in this area. Promise · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	28 May 2020	The GiveWell post on 2020 plans does not include a complete accounting of everything GiveWell plans to do in 2020. Factual · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	28 May 2020	GiveWell's plans laid out internally at the beginning of 2020 were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Factual · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	28 May 2020	In early 2020 GiveWell conducted research that led it to prioritize alcohol policy and pesticide suicide prevention and to deprioritize air pollution, tobacco and road safety. Factual · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	28 May 2020	Dispensers for Safe Water is a GiveWell standout charity. Factual · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	28 May 2020	GiveWell's marketing team is examining how users engage with the GiveWell website and where they may become confused or misinterpret its work. Factual · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	28 May 2020	GiveWell has paused work on public health regulation as of May 2020. Factual · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	28 May 2020	GiveWell does not typically focus on high-uncertainty, short-timeline reviews of funding opportunities. Factual · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Promise	28 May 2020	In 2020 GiveWell will complete its review of the New Incentives RCT results and decide whether to direct additional funding to New Incentives. Promise · 28 May 2020	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	2018	Among donors who gave in 2015, about 35% gave again in 2016, down from about 40% who gave again in 2015. Factual · 2018	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2018	If GiveWell influenced the same proportion of unattributed donations as attributed ones, it would have influenced an additional $20 million not in its headline money moved figure. Factual · 2018	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	2018	In 2016 GiveWell saw growth in the number of donors and amount donated in every donor size category reviewed, except donors giving $1 million or more per year. Factual · 2018	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	2018	In 2016, donors who gave $2,000 or more accounted for about 90% of GiveWell's money moved, excluding Good Ventures. Factual · 2018	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2018	GiveWell's best guess is that it is undercounting money moved by $10-20 million. Factual · 2018	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2018	GiveWell estimates about one-third of its 2016 expenses ($2.0 million) supported traditional top charity work and about two-thirds supported the Open Philanthropy Project, the same breakdown as in 2015. Factual · 2018	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2018	GiveWell's best guess is that it played a significant role in influencing an additional $10-20 million of donations to AMF, GiveDirectly and SCI in 2016 that are not counted in its headline money moved. Factual · 2018	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	2018	GiveWell's true money moved in 2016 may be somewhat higher than recorded, since some donors giving directly to recommended charities may have been influenced by its research without reporting it. Factual · 2018	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	2018	GiveWell's direct web traffic increased and traffic from other non-paid sources decreased between 2015 and 2016. Factual · 2018	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2015	In 2014, GiveWell tracked $27.8 million in money moved to its recommended charities. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2015	The limited donor growth in 2014 is largely due to many new 2013 donors, particularly those giving under $1,000, not giving again in 2014. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	2015	GiveWell's true 2014 money moved may be somewhat higher than the amount it recorded. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	2015	GiveWell's money moved calculation includes only donations it is confident it influenced. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2015	GiveWell generally averages Google Analytics and Clicky website traffic data. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2015	GiveWell estimates about half of its 2014 expenses supported its traditional top charity work and about half the Open Philanthropy Project. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2015	Of the 8,970 donors who gave to GiveWell's recommended charities in 2014, GiveWell knows where 3,558 (about 40%) learned of its work. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2015	The measured donor retention of about one third may understate true retention because some donors are anonymous or share partial information. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2015	In 2014 the number of donors giving to GiveWell's recommended charities or GiveWell unrestricted rose 9% to about 9,300. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2015	GiveWell believes it tracked the majority of donations it influenced in 2014, though the amount of donations it is uncertain about is larger than in past years. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	2015	In 2014, GiveWell recommended and Good Ventures made two grants: $250,000 to Evidence Action and about $34,000 to IDinsight. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2015	GiveWell guesses about 50% of the $1.9 million in unattributed 2014 donations to AMF were influenced by GiveWell, and did not include this in money moved. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Promise	12 Mar 2013	If GiveWell reaches its reserves limit, it would grant out unrestricted funds and count those grants in its money moved. Promise · 12 Mar 2013	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	12 Mar 2013	GiveWell currently collects donation information at the individual level and can follow how donors change their giving over time. Factual · 12 Mar 2013	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	12 Mar 2013	The GiveWell figure in the comparison chart includes only giving processed through its website, not all money moved, to match the online-giving data available for the others. Factual · 12 Mar 2013	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	12 Mar 2013	GiveWell's website traffic continued to grow in 2012. Factual · 12 Mar 2013	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	12 Mar 2013	GiveWell's money moved grew robustly in 2012 for every donor size category. Factual · 12 Mar 2013	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	12 Mar 2013	As in prior years, search traffic (organic and AdWords) provided the majority of traffic to GiveWell's website. Factual · 12 Mar 2013	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	7 Jan 2010	GiveWell's reviews of other organizations tend to focus on the end product and stay agnostic on those organizations' progress and how they can improve. Factual · 7 Jan 2010	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	7 Jan 2010	GiveWell last laid out a business plan in November 2008. Factual · 7 Jan 2010	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Promise	7 Jan 2010	GiveWell will examine itself critically over the coming weeks and share its self-review in near real time on its blog. Promise · 7 Jan 2010	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Promise	7 Jan 2010	GiveWell intends to discuss, for each of its self-review questions, its progress since November 2008, where it stands today relative to success, and what it can do to improve. Promise · 7 Jan 2010	Their own work or organisation

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GiveWell

Open its page

Factual Their own work or organisation

“As in prior years, search traffic (both organic and AdWords) provided the majority of the traffic to the website.”

GiveWell 12 March 2013 GiveWell annual review for 2012: Details on GiveWell's money moved and web traffic (The GiveWell Blog)

As in prior years, search traffic (organic and AdWords) provided the majority of traffic to GiveWell's website.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

What would count as true or false

True: GiveWell's 2012 traffic data show that search (organic plus AdWords combined) was more than 50% of website traffic, and prior years' data show search was also the majority. Mostly true: search was the majority in 2012, but the 'prior years' part holds for most but not all earlier years reported. Mixed: search was the majority in 2012 but not in prior years, or the reverse. Mostly false: search was a plurality but not a majority in 2012. False: search was well under half of 2012 traffic.

Evidence

Definitions GiveWell Own record
“The table below shows the sources of our web traffic in 2011.”
Stats on GiveWell's money moved and web traffic - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell · 8 February 2011 Own record
“The largest driver of growth in web traffic in 2010 was increased organic (i.e., non-AdWords) search traffic.”
Microsoft Word - Metrics report 2013 v5.doc GiveWell Own record
“Web traffic”

Reasoning

None of the evidence gives a 2012 breakdown of traffic sources. E3, the 2013 metrics report, cuts off before its source breakdown, so the central part of the claim cannot be checked. On prior years, E1 shows search plus AdWords at about 55% of 2011 traffic, a majority. E2 shows about 47% in 2010, under half, so the 'as in prior years' part holds only partly. All sources come from GiveWell itself, and without 2012 figures the criteria cannot be applied.

Cite this claim

GiveWell, “As in prior years, search traffic (organic and AdWords) provided the majority of traffic to GiveWell's website.” (said 12 March 2013). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_fe504c69a028, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fe504c69a028

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for GiveWell? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.