ClaimsScott Alexander

“Nobody important changes their mind much about the EMDrive based on any information found in 2016: 80%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 Predictions For 2016 (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Prediction Science and research methods

Nobody important will change their mind much about the EMDrive based on information found in 2016.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Whether 'important' people changed their minds much is vague and untestable.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Nobody important will change their mind much about the EMDrive based on information found in 2016.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_fa6104275865, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fa6104275865

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Resolved true Prediction 6 January 2017
    “A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works: 80%”

    A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”

    The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “So they become extremely interested and they discuss nationalizing the AI companies.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.