ClaimsScott Alexander

“A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works: 80%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 6 January 2017 Predictions For 2017 (Slate Star Codex)

Prediction Science and research methods

A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2017-12-31. True: at the end of 2017 a substantial body of physicists, engineers or science commentators still publicly doubted that the EMDrive produces real thrust, with no replication accepted by the mainstream scientific community and no scientific consensus that it works. Mostly true: the same holds but skeptics were fewer or quieter, with some prominent former skeptics changing their view. Mostly false: by end-2017 most prominent skeptics had publicly accepted that the EMDrive works and only a fringe still doubted it. False: by end-2017 there was a broad scientific consensus, backed by accepted independent replications, that the EMDrive works, so that no significant group of skeptics remained.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 A banner year for future flight Aerospace America (AIAA) · 29 November 2017

    “Similar research to objectively assess the technology is ongoing at other institutes, such as the Technical University at Dresden in Germany. Researchers continue their efforts to reduce experimental uncertainty and establish an upper-bound on any perceived effect.”
  2. E2 Theoretical physicists get closer to explaining how NASA’s ‘impossible’ EmDrive works - CNET CNET · 31 October 2017

    “Other scientists disagree, and the jury is still out about whether EmDrive is ultimately worthless.”
  3. E3 Fuel-free space travel Aerospace America (AIAA) · 9 February 2017

    “Even so, some physicists remain unconvinced about the EmDrive.”

Reasoning

In October 2017, CNET reported that other scientists disagreed and that the jury was still out on the EmDrive (E2). In late November 2017, AIAA's Aerospace America said work to objectively assess the technology was still under way at places such as TU Dresden, with researchers trying to set an upper bound on any perceived effect (E1). This indicates that no accepted replication or consensus had emerged near the end of 2017 [E1][E2]. An earlier AIAA piece, from February 2017, also noted that some physicists remained unconvinced (E3), which together with E1 and E2 supports continued skepticism through the year.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017.” (said 6 January 2017). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_b49f18a0a0bc, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b49f18a0a0bc

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

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  3. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 3 April 2025
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    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 20 February 2023
    “I expect scaling to continue to produce gains, but this is less obvious than it’s been the past five years.”

    Scaling AI models will continue to produce gains, though less obviously than in the past five years.

All of them

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