ClaimsScott Alexander

“We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”

Scott Alexander, co-author of AI 2027 3 April 2025 AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo (Dwarkesh Podcast) archived copy

Prediction AI policy and governance

In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

What would count as true or false

This is a claim about what the AI 2027 scenario (published April 2025 by the AI Futures Project, co-written by Scott Alexander) says, not about real-world events. True: the scenario text describes leading AI labs informing the US government (or other governments) about their growing capabilities, with a motive to win government contracts or support. Mostly true: the scenario shows labs telling the government about their capabilities, but the stated motive differs slightly, or it is a single lab rather than labs in general. Mixed: the scenario shows the government learning of capabilities, but mainly through other channels, with lab disclosure playing a small part. Mostly false: the government is informed only through leaks, spying or whistleblowers, with labs disclosing very little. False: the scenario has no such disclosure, or shows labs hiding their capabilities from the government.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like — AI Alignment Forum AI Alignment Forum (crosspost of ai-2027.com; co-authored by Scott Alexander) · 3 April 2025 Own record

    “OpenBrain presents Agent-2 to the government, including the National Security Council (NSC), Department of Defense (DOD), and US AI Safety Institute (AISI).”

  2. E2 Summary — AI 2027 AI Futures Project (ai-2027.com; publisher not named on page) · 3 April 2025 Own record

    “Meanwhile, OpenBrain leadership wants to stay in the good graces of the president, and so signs the contract.”

  3. E3 Summary — AI 2027 AI Futures Project (ai-2027.com; publisher not named on page) · 3 April 2025 Own record

    “Falling behind in software progress, China steals the model weights. They succeed, but the U.S. government realizes, prompting additional U.S. government involvement with OpenBrain.”

  4. E4 AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like — AI Alignment Forum AI Alignment Forum (crosspost of ai-2027.com; co-authored by Scott Alexander) · 3 April 2025 Own record

    “Knowledge of Agent-2’s full capabilities is limited to an elite silo containing the immediate team, OpenBrain leadership and security, a few dozen US government officials, and the legions of CCP spies who have infiltrated OpenBrain for years.”

Reasoning

The scenario text says one lab, OpenBrain, presents Agent-2 to the government, including the NSC, DOD and US AISI (E1). A few dozen US government officials are among those who know its full capabilities (E4). The motive shown is that OpenBrain's leadership wants to stay in the president's good graces and signs a government contract (E2). That is close to seeking support, but it is one lab rather than labs in general, and the Chinese theft of the model weights also drives further government involvement (E3).

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support.” (said 3 April 2025). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_8ec2730b8799, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8ec2730b8799

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “So they become extremely interested and they discuss nationalizing the AI companies.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”

    The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 20 February 2023
    “I expect scaling to continue to produce gains, but this is less obvious than it’s been the past five years.”

    Scaling AI models will continue to produce gains, though less obviously than in the past five years.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 20 February 2023
    “Training GPT-4 will cost $100M, which is a lot.”

    Training GPT-4 will cost $100 million.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.