Four out of five initial coin offerings (ICOs) were scams.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2018-10-15. Read 'four out of five' as about 80% of ICOs being scams. True: a recognised study from 2018 or earlier found that about 75–85% of ICOs were scams or fraudulent (for example the Satis Group 2018 report finding about 78–81% of ICOs to be scams), and the figure is applied to ICOs by count. Mostly true: such a study exists and supports about 80%, but with a minor caveat, such as limited sample coverage or the share being by count rather than by funds raised. Mostly false: the roughly 80% figure exists but the claim distorts it materially, for example the study's category merged scams with failed or dead projects, or other credible studies show a much lower scam share, so that 'scams' overstates the finding. False: no source supports anything close to 80%, and the evidence shows the scam share was far lower.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 New Study: 80% of ICOs are Scams, Only 8% Reach an Exchange news.Bitcoin.com · 28 March 2018
“we found that approximately 81% of ICO’s were Scams, ~6% Failed, ~5% had Gone Dead, and ~8% went on to trade on a exchange.”
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E2 New Study: 80% of ICOs are Scams, Only 8% Reach an Exchange news.Bitcoin.com · 28 March 2018
“That seems, at first reading, to be a little on the loose side.”
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E3 [PDF] Corporate Crypto Crowdfunding Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Econ Focus · 2019
“According to a 2018 study by the Satis Group, a token advisory firm, nearly 80 percent of ICOs were determined to be scams, meaning there was evidence that the project leaders had no intention of actually developing their project”
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E4 Tech: ICOs still raising billions despite scams and dead projects The Edge Malaysia · 17 September 2018
“According to a study by ICO advisory group Satis Group LLP in July, about 78% of ICOs last year were scams, about 4% failed and 3% did not see any activity after the fundraising stage.”
Reasoning
Several independent sources report that a 2018 Satis Group study classified about 78–81% of ICOs as scams by count (E1, E3, E4), which matches 'four out of five.' The study kept scams separate from 'Failed' and 'Gone Dead' projects (E1, E4), so the scam figure is not inflated by merging in failed projects. One commentator called the study's scam definition loose (E2), but the claim still matches the study the criteria name as qualifying for 'true.'
Cite this claim
Nouriel Roubini, “Four out of five initial coin offerings (ICOs) were scams.” (said 15 October 2018). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_f90e7ad2c85a, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f90e7ad2c85a
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.