The AI 2027 scenario existed at an early stage as a giant spreadsheet and had not yet been written up.

True if accounts from the AI 2027 authors or reliable reporting show that at an early stage the AI 2027 scenario existed mainly as a large spreadsheet (for example a timeline or table of events and forecasts) before it was written up as prose. Mostly true if the early form was a large spreadsheet together with other material such as notes or short drafts, or if 'giant' overstates its size a little. Mixed if a spreadsheet was one of several roughly equal early forms. Mostly false if a spreadsheet existed but was minor, and the early scenario was mainly prose drafts. False if the evidence shows no spreadsheet stage, or shows the scenario was written as prose from the start.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 AI 2027 AI Futures Project (ai-2027.com) · 3 April 2025 Own record

   “The scenario itself was written iteratively: we wrote the first period (up to mid-2025), then the following period, etc. until we reached the ending. We then scrapped this and did it again.”

2. E2 AI forecasting and policy research by the AI 2027 team Manifund · 6 May 2025 Own record

   “Informed guesses based on deep thinking, trend extrapolations, detailed spreadsheets, industry rumors, conversations with experts, and tabletop exercises.”

3. E3 AI 2027 AI 2027 authors (ai-2027.com) · 3 April 2025 Own record

   “The scenario itself was written iteratively: we wrote the first period (up to mid-2025), then the following period, etc. until we reached the ending. We then scrapped this and did it again.”

4. E4 AI 2027 AI 2027 authors (ai-2027.com) · 3 April 2025 Own record

   “Scott Alexander, blogger extraordinaire, volunteered to rewrite our content in an engaging style; the fun parts of the story are his and the boring parts are ours.”

5. E5 Daniel Kokotajlo on what a hyperspeed robot economy might look like | 80,000 Hours 80,000 Hours · 15 January 2026

   “When we were writing out AI 2027, our methodology was roughly: write a year or a period, and then write the next period, and so forth, and sort of roll it out and just see what happens.”

6. E6 forecasts vs. fiction (ft. daniel kokotajlo) jasmi.news (Jasmine Sun) · 11 July 2025

   “As part of our writing methodology, we did it step-by-step, time period by time period. We started with the end of 2024, then we did 2025, then 2026, and so forth.”

7. E7 forecasts vs. fiction (ft. daniel kokotajlo) jasmi.news (Jasmine Sun) · 11 July 2025

   “The draft that ultimately became AI 2027 was first written in December of last year. We were gradually working on it over the previous couple of months.”

8. E8 forecasts vs. fiction (ft. daniel kokotajlo) jasmi.news (Jasmine Sun) · 11 July 2025

   “After we wrote the scenario, we got Scott Alexander to rewrite it multiple times to be more entertaining and engaging.”

No source says the AI 2027 scenario's early form was mainly a large spreadsheet. The authors' site (E1, E3, E4) says the scenario was written period by period, scrapped and redone, and later rewritten by Scott Alexander, but it does not say what form the early material took. E2 lists "detailed spreadsheets" as one input to the team's forecasts, not as the form of the scenario. Kokotajlo's accounts (E5–E8) describe writing drafts period by period without mentioning a spreadsheet. They neither confirm a spreadsheet stage nor rule one out, so the evidence does not settle the claim.