Over the 110 years since 1890, rising housing supply has been accompanied by falling prices.

Test: does US long-run housing data from 1890 to 2006 show that increases in housing supply are consistently accompanied by falling (real) home prices, as a trend over roughly 110 years? True: historical data (e.g. Shiller's real home price index and housing starts or stock series) shows a consistent inverse relationship over the period. Mostly true: the relationship generally holds, with minor exceptions, or the date span is slightly misstated (1890 to 2006 is about 116 years). Mixed: the relationship holds in some major episodes but not others. Mostly false: a real fact is distorted. For example, real home prices were roughly flat over the long run, or fell during supply booms in some periods, but the data does not show a consistent supply-causes-price-falls trend. False: the data shows no such relationship or the opposite (prices rising alongside supply).

Set before the research began.

1. E1 inflation – Page 2 – An Economic Sense An Economic Sense (blog) · 19 August 2025

   “For over a century (i.e. from 1890 to 2000), real home prices fluctuated between index values of around 70 on the low side and at most 130 on the high side (where the price in 1890 = 100).”

2. E2 No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870-2012 - American Economic Association American Economic Review (American Economic Association) · February 2017

   “We show that real house prices stayed constant from the nineteenth to the mid-twentieth century, but rose strongly and with substantial cross-country variation in the second half of the twentieth century.”

3. E3 The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890-2006 National Bureau of Economic Research · 24 June 2024

   “Real market rents did not fall during the 20th century for most cities. Instead, real rental price levels increased by about 20% from 1890 to 2006.”

E1 describes real US home prices from 1890 to 2000 as moving within a band of about 70 to 130 on an index where 1890 = 100, with no steady decline. E2 finds that real house prices stayed roughly constant from the nineteenth century to the mid-twentieth century and then rose strongly. E3 reports that US real rents rose about 20% from 1890 to 2006 instead of falling. None of the sources shows a consistent long-run pattern of rising supply coming with falling prices. That fits the criteria's mostly-false case: the sources show real prices fluctuating or roughly flat over long stretches [E1][E2], not a consistent pattern of rising supply coming with falling prices.