ClaimsScott Alexander

“North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 95%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 Predictions For 2016 (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Prediction Other global risks

Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that North Korea's government would survive 2016 without a large civil war or revolt.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

A factual claim about what Scott Alexander wrote in his January 2016 predictions post. True: the post lists 'North Korea's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt' at 95%. Mostly true: 95% is given for an essentially identical proposition. Mostly false: the item appears at a different probability. False: there is no such item. The actual outcome in North Korea is not tested.

Set before the research began.

Reasoning

No evidence with a verified quote was found apart from the claim's own source, so the claim was not judged.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that North Korea's government would survive 2016 without a large civil war or revolt.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_f395ea11ce53, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f395ea11ce53

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period.”

    Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Paris Agreement still in effect, most countries generally making good-faith effort to comply: 80%”

    With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 2018
    “If they are, it will be because somebody did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases.”

    If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases.

  4. Mixed Prediction 6 January 2017
    “Situation in Israel looks more worse than better: 70%”

    The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017.

  5. Mixed Prediction 6 January 2017
    “ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 50%”

    ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.