ClaimsScott Alexander

“Situation in Israel looks more worse than better: 70%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 6 January 2017 Predictions For 2017 (Slate Star Codex)

Prediction Other global risks

The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged at the end of 2017, compared with the start of 2017. Use these indicators: (a) Israeli and Palestinian conflict deaths in 2017 against 2016; (b) whether there were major new escalations, such as wars, Gaza flare-ups or waves of attacks, or major crises such as the Temple Mount crisis, against de-escalations; (c) the state of the peace process and Israel's regional security (Gaza, Lebanon/Hezbollah, Syria, Iran). True: most indicators and the consensus of mainstream end-of-year analysis show the situation got worse. Mostly true: worse on balance, with one indicator improving. Mixed: indicators are roughly split, or analysts describe the situation as broadly unchanged. Mostly false: better on balance, with some deterioration. False: clearly better on most indicators.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 2017: Energy Crisis Worsens; Fatality Toll Declines - OCHA Press Release - Question of Palestine UN Question of Palestine (reposting OCHA oPt press release) · 28 December 2017

    “Palestinian fatalities have declined in 2017 for the second year in a row. As of 27 December, 76 Palestinians were killed by Israelis, down from 109 in 2016 and 169 in 2015.”

  2. E2 2017: Energy Crisis Worsens; Fatality Toll Declines - OCHA Press Release - Question of Palestine UN Question of Palestine (reposting OCHA oPt press release) · 28 December 2017

    “By contrast, the number of Palestinian injuries, as of 18 December, almost doubled compared with 2016: 6,601 vs. 3,427.”

  3. E3 IDF's achievements in 2017 marred by political attacks Ynetnews · 1 January 2018

    “The year 2017 was a good year for the IDF. The army, the Shin Bet and the police dealt successfully with lone-wolf terrorism and with the escalation following the metal detectors affair.”

  4. E4 No. 960 Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Insight No. 960 by Amos Yadlin · 3 August 2017

    “The crisis concerning the Temple Mount that erupted in July 2017 appears to have ebbed.”

Reasoning

OCHA's year-end figures show Palestinian deaths caused by Israelis fell to 76 in 2017, down from 109 in 2016. They also show Palestinian injuries nearly doubling (E2), and the OCHA release is headlined as reporting a worsening energy crisis (E1). A major escalation did happen in 2017, the July Temple Mount crisis, but INSS said in August that it appeared to have ebbed (E4). Ynetnews' year-end review called 2017 a good year for Israel's security forces (E3). The evidence does not cover the peace process or regional security, and the indicators it does cover point in different directions, so the result is mixed rather than clearly worse.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017.” (said 6 January 2017). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_573f1554f15d, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_573f1554f15d

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period.”

    Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Paris Agreement still in effect, most countries generally making good-faith effort to comply: 80%”

    With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 2018
    “If they are, it will be because somebody did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases.”

    If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases.

  4. Mixed Prediction 6 January 2017
    “ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 50%”

    ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 6 January 2017
    “No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party: 95%”

    There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.