ClaimsScott Alexander

“No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party: 95%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 6 January 2017 Predictions For 2017 (Slate Star Codex)

Prediction Other global risks

There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged over calendar year 2017. True: no anti-CCP revolt or protest movement in mainland China (or a territory under its rule) reached roughly the scale of the 1989 Tiananmen protests, meaning sustained mass protest against the Party involving hundreds of thousands of people over weeks, or a larger uprising. False: such a revolt happened in 2017. Mostly false: a large anti-government movement happened in 2017 that falls only a little short of Tiananmen scale and is arguably comparable. Local protests over specific grievances do not count.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Thousands of Military Veterans Protest Outside Party Offices in Beijing Radio Free Asia · 22 February 2017

    “Thousands of People's Liberation Army (PLA) veterans protested outside the disciplinary arm of the ruling Chinese Communist Party in Beijing on Wednesday over pensions, healthcare and other demobilization benefits they said were promised but not delivered.”

  2. E2 Thousands of Military Veterans Protest Outside Party Offices in Beijing Radio Free Asia · 22 February 2017

    “The demonstration is the largest in the Chinese capital since a mass demonstration on Oct. 11 shocked the authorities, who ordered provincial chiefs to Beijing to begin escorting the disgruntled protesters home.”

  3. E3 China (includes Tibet, Hong Kong, and Macau) - United States Department of State United States Department of State, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor · 7 December 2023

    “Protests over relocation terms or compensation were common, and authorities prosecuted some protest leaders.”

  4. E4 China (includes Tibet, Hong Kong, and Macau) - United States Department of State United States Department of State, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor · 7 December 2023

    “In May and June, police detained at least two dozen individuals who held various ceremonies, attended protests, or assisted others who did so.”

Reasoning

The largest Beijing protest the evidence records for 2017 is a demonstration by thousands of PLA veterans over pensions and benefits (E1). E2 describes it as the largest in the capital since the previous October, which is far below the hundreds of thousands seen at Tiananmen. The State Department's review of 2017 describes protests over specific grievances such as relocation and compensation, and detentions of small numbers of people (E3, E4). The criteria exclude local grievance protests, and none of the evidence describes a sustained anti-Party mass movement on the scale of Tiananmen. On that basis the prediction resolves true.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017.” (said 6 January 2017). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_cb927c5833bf, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cb927c5833bf

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period.”

    Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Paris Agreement still in effect, most countries generally making good-faith effort to comply: 80%”

    With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 2018
    “If they are, it will be because somebody did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases.”

    If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases.

  4. Mixed Prediction 6 January 2017
    “Situation in Israel looks more worse than better: 70%”

    The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017.

  5. Mixed Prediction 6 January 2017
    “ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 50%”

    ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.