With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply.

The claim has two parts, both judged at 15 February 2023. (a) The Paris Agreement was still legally in force. (b) Most parties were generally making a good-faith effort to comply. For (b), the test is the procedural obligations: a majority of parties had submitted new or updated NDCs and were taking part in UNFCCC reporting, and the parties had not withdrawn. Meeting emission targets or staying on a 1.5°C path is not required. True: both (a) and (b) hold. Mostly true: (a) holds and a majority complied with the procedural obligations, but credible assessments note large shortfalls in ambition or implementation among major emitters. Mixed: (a) holds, but only around half of the parties had submitted updated NDCs or were reporting. Mostly false: (a) holds, but most parties had failed to submit NDCs or report, or major parties had withdrawn. False: the Agreement was no longer in force.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement: Synthesis report by the secretariat (FCCC/PA/CMA/2022/4) - World UNFCCC secretariat (via ReliefWeb) · 26 October 2022

   “This report synthesizes information from the 166 latest available nationally determined contributions communicated by 193 Parties to the Paris Agreement and recorded in the registry of nationally determined contributions as at 23 September 2022.”

2. E2 Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement: Synthesis report by the secretariat (FCCC/PA/CMA/2022/4) - World UNFCCC secretariat (via ReliefWeb) · 26 October 2022

   “including the 142 new or updated NDCs communicated by 169 Parties, recorded in the NDC registry as at 23 September 2022, covering 94.9 per cent of the total global emissions in 2019”

3. E3 COP27: Key Takeaways and What's Next World Resources Institute · 12 August 2022

   “Yet since then, only 34 of 194 parties have submitted new or updated NDCs though this did include major economies such as Australia, Mexico, and Indonesia.”

The UNFCCC secretariat's October 2022 synthesis report covers 193 Parties to the Paris Agreement as of 23 September 2022 (E1). This shows the Agreement was still operating, with 193 Parties, a few months before the February 2023 horizon [E1]. The same report records 142 new or updated NDCs from 169 of those 193 Parties, covering 94.9% of global 2019 emissions (E2), so a large majority met the NDC update obligation. E3 says only 34 of 194 parties had submitted new or updated NDCs "since then"; the quote does not state the period counted, which appears narrower than the total in E2. No evidence shows any party had withdrawn, although the evidence does not separately document participation in reporting.