ClaimsJeremy Grantham

“The remarkable 50% of GDP going into capital spending was partly the result of a heroic and desperate effort to keep the ship afl oat as the Western banking system collapsed.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder, letter author April 2011 GMO Quarterly Letter April 2011: Time to Wake Up (GMO) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

About 50% of China's GDP went into capital spending, partly as an effort to keep the economy afloat during the Western banking collapse.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of April 2011, using China's capital spending share of GDP for 2009–2010: gross capital formation, or gross fixed capital formation, as a share of GDP in the latest official NBS or World Bank series. Later formal revisions to these figures govern. The claim also says this was partly a response to the Western banking collapse; that part holds if the post-2008 stimulus is documented as a response to the global financial crisis. True: the share was about 45–55% and that link is documented. Mostly true: the share was 42–45% or 55–58%, with the link documented. Mostly false: the share was 35–42%, or the investment cannot reasonably be linked to the crisis response. False: the share was below 35%.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (8)

  1. E1 China Quarterly Update — June 2009 World Bank Office, Beijing · June 2009

    “China’s economy has continued to feel the brunt of the global crisis.”
  2. E2 China Quarterly Update — June 2009 World Bank Office, Beijing · June 2009

    “government’s investment and infrastructure oriented “RMB 4 trillion” stimulus plan”
  3. E3 China Quarterly Update — June 2009 World Bank Office, Beijing · June 2009

    “Government influenced spending only makes up one-third of domestic demand.”
  4. E4 China Quarterly Update, June 2009 World Bank Office, Beijing · June 2009

    “Boosted by the stimulus package, infrastructure and other government-influenced investment rose rapidly in the first five months (an estimated 39 percent (yoy) in the first four months in national accounts terms, up from an estimated 13 percent in 2008).”
  5. E5 China Quarterly Update, June 2009 World Bank Office, Beijing · June 2009

    “Much of the fiscal stimulus is centered around the government’s investment and infrastructure oriented “RMB 4 trillion” stimulus plan”
  6. E6 Demystifying China's Fiscal Stimulus - World Bank Document The World Bank, Development Economics Vice Presidency, Office of the Chief Economist (Policy Research Working Paper 6221) · October 2012

    “The focus of this paper is China’s fiscal policy response, which prevented a recession in China”
  7. E7 Demystifying China's Fiscal Stimulus - World Bank Document The World Bank, Development Economics Vice Presidency, Office of the Chief Economist (Policy Research Working Paper 6221) · October 2012

    “After the global crisis in 2008, government spending increased to almost 23 percent of GDP, up from 18 percent in the boom years.”
  8. E8 Demystifying China's Fiscal Stimulus - World Bank Document The World Bank, Development Economics Vice Presidency, Office of the Chief Economist (Policy Research Working Paper 6221) · October 2012

    “nearly RMB 3 trillion of supporting investment projects and programs by the local governments and non-governmental sectors, which to a great extent were financed by supporting loans provided by policy banks and commercial banks.”

Reasoning

The World Bank sources document that China's investment- and infrastructure-oriented RMB 4 trillion stimulus was a response to the global crisis (E1, E2, E4, E5, E6), which satisfies the crisis-link part of the criteria. However, no evidence gives China's gross capital formation or gross fixed capital formation as a share of GDP for 2009–2010. E7 reports government spending (about 23% of GDP), not investment, and E3 concerns government-influenced spending as a share of domestic demand. The criteria tie every verdict band to the investment share, so without that figure the claim cannot be resolved.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “About 50% of China's GDP went into capital spending, partly as an effort to keep the economy afloat during the Western banking collapse.” (said April 2011). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_f2d31c875401, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f2d31c875401

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Jeremy Grantham, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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All of them

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