In the last 60 years of US history, there has been no episode with inflation above 5% and unemployment below 5% in which the Fed started raising rates and avoided a hard landing.

Covers roughly 1962–2022. Identify the Fed tightening cycles that began when CPI inflation was above 5% and unemployment was below 5%. True if every such episode was followed by a recession (NBER-dated), that is, a hard landing. Mostly true if every such episode ended in recession except a borderline case where the conditions were only marginally met or the 'hard landing' status is disputed. Mostly false if one clear episode meeting both thresholds avoided recession. False if several such episodes avoided recession. The claim depends on the 5%/5% thresholds, so check them against the actual data at the start of each cycle (for example 1965–66, 1968, 1973, 1988–89). Note that the claim is literally true if few or no episodes meet the conditions.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Hard and Soft Landings: The Federal Reserve’s Record - Conversable Economist Conversable Economist (Timothy Taylor blog) · 8 February 2023

   “What jumps out from the figure is that there are a number of times where the Fed raised interest rates and either it was not followed by a recession (1, 6, and 8), or the recession was very short (9), or the recession that followed was not caused by the higher interest rates (10 and 11).”

2. E2 Hard and Soft Landings: The Federal Reserve’s Record - Conversable Economist Conversable Economist (Timothy Taylor blog) · 8 February 2023

   “Blinder argues that it is fair to read the historical record as involving 11 episodes where the Fed raised interest rates substantially since 1965.”

3. E3 Hard and Soft Landings: The Federal Reserve’s Record - Conversable Economist Conversable Economist (Timothy Taylor blog) · 8 February 2023

   “Blinder argues that the Fed might have pulled off a soft landing with its interest rate increase in 1988-89, except for Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1991.”

4. E4 US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions National Bureau of Economic Research · 14 March 2023

   “| November 1973 (1973Q4) | March 1975 (1975Q1) | 16 | 36 | 52 | 47 |”

5. E5 Landings, Soft and Hard: The Federal Reserve, 1965-2020 Alan S. Blinder, Princeton University (presentation to Markus Academy) · 11 February 2022

   “In three other cases, there was never any intention to make it “soft”: 1972-74, 1977-80, 1980-81.”

6. E6 Landings, Soft and Hard: The Federal Reserve, 1965-2020 Alan S. Blinder, Princeton University (presentation to Markus Academy) · 11 February 2022

   “Recession started in August 1990, triggered by Saddam Hussein, not by Alan Greenspan.”

7. E7 Landings, Soft and Hard: The Federal Reserve, 1965-2020 Alan S. Blinder, Princeton University (presentation to Markus Academy) · 11 February 2022

   “The legendary perfect soft landing”

The evidence lists Blinder's 11 Fed tightening episodes since 1965 (E2). Several were not followed by a recession, and some recessions were not caused by the rate rises (E1, E7). The 1972-74 tightening was followed by an NBER-dated recession (E6, E4), and 1988-89 is presented as borderline (E3). None of the evidence gives CPI inflation or unemployment rates at the start of any cycle, so it cannot show whether any soft-landing episode met the 5%/5% thresholds the criteria require.