The summer 2022 stock rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern of the bear market rally that Grantham describes.

Judge as of 2022-08-31. First identify the bear-market-rally pattern Grantham describes in the same piece (for example, the size of the rally after the first leg down, how much of the earlier loss it recovers, and how long it lasts compared with historical superbubbles). Then compare the S&P 500 (or the index he refers to) from the June 2022 low to the date of the statement against those features. True: the rally matches every feature he names (its size, the share of losses recovered, timing) within ordinary tolerance. The claim says 'perfectly', so all of them must hold. Mostly true: every main feature matches and one minor feature is slightly off (for example, the share of losses recovered is a few points away from the stated benchmark). Mixed: roughly half of the named features match. Mostly false: the rally is broadly similar but differs on most of the specific features. False: the rally clearly does not fit the described pattern (for example, it was far smaller or larger than the pattern says, or there was no rally after a first leg down).

Set before the research began.

1. E1 ENTERING THE SUPERBUBBLE'S FINAL ACT GMO (Jeremy Grantham Viewpoints) · 31 August 2022 Own record

   “This in all three previous cases recovered over half the market’s initial losses, luring unwary investors back just in time for the market to turn down again, only more viciously”

2. E2 ENTERING THE SUPERBUBBLE'S FINAL ACT GMO (Jeremy Grantham Viewpoints) · 31 August 2022 Own record

   “In 2022, at the intraday peak on August 16th, the S&P had made back 58% of its losses since its June low.”

3. E3 Will the summer stock rally create more pain for investors? | The National The National · 30 August 2022

   “Yet, the US S&P 500 somehow jumped 17.4 per cent from 3,666.77 on June 16 to 4,305.20 on August 16, leaving it just 10 per cent behind January’s opening of 4,796.56.”

4. E4 August 2022 Market Recap - Gateway Investment Advisers Gateway Investment Advisers · 6 September 2022

   “After a 22.99% drawdown from January 4 through June 16, the S&P 500® Index climbed 17.68% from June 16 through August 16.”

In the quoted text of his letter, Grantham describes the pattern as a bear-market rally after the first leg down that recovers more than half of the market's initial losses and is then followed by a renewed decline (E1). His letter puts the rally at its August 16 intraday peak at 58% of losses recovered (E2). Independent figures support this. The S&P 500 fell about 23% from its January high to June 16, then rose about 17.4–17.7% to 4,305.20 on August 16 (E3, E4). Using the figures in E3 (3,666.77 on June 16, 4,305.20 on August 16, against January's opening of 4,796.56), that works out to roughly 56% of the loss recovered. The main feature matches, but the evidence does not show other parts of the pattern, such as how long the rally lasted compared with earlier superbubbles, so 'perfectly' is not fully confirmed.