ClaimsWarren Buffett

“We will come back regardless of how people feel about Washington.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman 23 September 2010 CNBC Transcript: Becky Quick speaks with Warren Buffett (CNBC) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

The US economy will come back regardless of how people feel about Washington.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

The claim gives no exact date. It is judged at 2014-12-31, about four years after it was made. 'Come back' means the US economy recovers from the Great Recession. True: by the horizon, real GDP is above its pre-recession peak and payroll employment has regained, or come close to (within about 1%), its pre-recession peak, while unemployment has fallen substantially from its 2009–2010 highs. Mostly true: GDP has fully recovered and is growing, but employment is still somewhat short of its peak (1–3%). Mixed: output has recovered but the labor market clearly has not (more than 3% short of peak employment, with little fall in unemployment). Mostly false: there is only weak, partial recovery in both output and jobs. False: the economy falls back into recession, or does not grow, over the period.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Labor Market Still Far from Recovered Five Years after the Great Recession The Century Foundation (TCF) · 8 March 2016

    “In May 2014, total payroll employment edged above its peak at the start of the Great Recession, having recovered a bit more than the 8.7 million jobs that were rapidly shed in the aftermath of the housing bubble’s implosion.”
  2. E2 Labor Market Still Far from Recovered Five Years after the Great Recession The Century Foundation (TCF) · 8 March 2016

    “Five years after the Great Recession ended, the labor market remains less than halfway recovered.”
  3. E3 Labor Market Still Far from Recovered Five Years after the Great Recession The Century Foundation (TCF) · 8 March 2016

    “Instead, the unemployment rate—which has been quite the misleading economic indicator in recent years—decreased from 6.3 percent to 6.1 percent.”

Reasoning

The evidence shows payroll employment back above its pre-recession peak by May 2014 [E1] and an undated fall in unemployment from 6.3 to 6.1 percent [E3], while also describing the labor market as less than halfway recovered [E2]. No evidence item covers real GDP, which every verdict grade from mixed upward depends on, so the evidence does not settle the claim under the criteria.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “The US economy will come back regardless of how people feel about Washington.” (said 23 September 2010). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_ea460aaca685, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ea460aaca685

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Warren Buffett, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Warren Buffett

  1. Mostly true Prediction 27 February 2017
    “And I think they will end up going for something not as dramatic as they might even like to do because they simply don't want to spend the time and the political capital getting it done.”

    Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “we will get out of it.”

    The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “I don’t think they’ll end up being passed for no one.”

    Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 2007
    “Nevertheless, this operation faces unrelenting pressures that will cause profit margins to slide.”

    Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2007
    “A decade from now, HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger.”

    HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.