ClaimsWarren Buffett

“A decade from now, HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman 2007 Berkshire Hathaway 2006 Letter to Shareholders (Berkshire Hathaway) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Compare HomeServices in 2017 with HomeServices in 2007. Use its main size measures: revenue, number of agents, or annual home sales volume and transactions. Take the figures from Berkshire Hathaway / Berkshire Hathaway Energy filings or HomeServices' published figures. 'Much larger' means substantially larger on these measures. TRUE: revenue or the main operating measures (agents, sales volume) in 2017 were at least about 50% higher than in 2007. MOSTLY TRUE: growth was roughly 25–50% on the main measures. MIXED: the measures conflict, with clear growth on some and stagnation on others. MOSTLY FALSE: growth on the main measures was under about 25%. FALSE: HomeServices was the same size or smaller in 2017.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (11)

  1. E1 2017ar.pdf (Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Report) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record

    “With those purchases we added 12,300 agents, raising our total to 40,950. HomeServices is now close to leading the country in home sales, having participated (including our three acquisitions pro-forma) in $127 billion of”

  2. E2 2017ar.pdf (Berkshire Hathaway 2017 Annual Report) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record

    “But, year-by-year, the company added brokers and, by the end of 2016, HomeServices was the second-largest brokerage operation in the country – still ranking, though, far behind the leader, Realogy.”

  3. E3 10-K - SEC.gov (Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year ended December 31, 2017) U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) Own record

    “Revenues increased 23% in 2017 compared to 2016, primarily due to business acquisitions and an increase in average home sales prices.”

  4. E4 Don’t look now, but Warren Buffett is the No. 2 broker in the country The Real Deal · 29 March 2018

    “Under the Berkshire Hathaway banner, HomeServices closed $125.4 billion in transaction volume in 2017. It represented 328,355 “sides,” meaning either the buyer or seller side, reflecting a 34 percent jump from the year before, Bloomberg reported.”

  5. E5 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 2017 Annual Report (Chairman's Letter) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 2018 Own record

    “With those purchases we added 12,300 agents, raising our total to 40,950. HomeServices is now close to leading the country in home sales, having participated (including our three acquisitions pro-forma) in $127 billion of “sides” during 2017.”

  6. E6 Form 10-K for fiscal year ended December 31, 2017 (Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) · 23 February 2018 Own record

    “Revenues increased 23% in 2017 compared to 2016, primarily due to business acquisitions and an increase in average home sales prices.”

  7. E7 Form 10-K for fiscal year ended December 31, 2017 (Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) · 23 February 2018 Own record

    “Revenues increased 11.0% to $2.8 billion in 2016 compared to 2015.”

  8. E8 Microsoft PowerPoint - Final Investor Presentation - Compatibility Mode Berkshire Hathaway Energy (2007 Fixed-Income Investor Update, filed as Form 8-K) · 2 November 2007 Own record

    “• 3,550 employees • 20,000 sales associates”

  9. E9 2007Shareholder Letter Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (Warren Buffett shareholder letter, hosted on berkshireletters.com) · 28 February 2008 Own record

    “This company operates through 20 locally-branded firms with 18,800 agents.”

  10. E10 Warren Buffett loves HomeServices of America Inman · 27 February 2017

    “HomeServices owns 38 realty companies with more than 29,000 agents who operate in 28 states.”

  11. E11 HomeServices of America Acquires The Long & Foster Companies HomeServices of America (press release, Long & Foster newsroom) · 7 September 2017 Own record

    “In 2017, the company expects its sales associates to facilitate over $123 billion in residential real estate sales, nearly 340,000 home sale transactions, and nearly 200,000 mortgage, insurance, title, and escrow transactions.”

Reasoning

Berkshire's 2007 shareholder letter gives HomeServices 18,800 agents (E9). The 2017 annual report says acquisitions brought the total to 40,950 agents, more than double the 2007 count (E1, E5). Inman, an independent source, reported more than 29,000 agents in February 2017, before those acquisitions (E10). That alone is about 54% above the 18,800 agents in the 2007 letter [E9], or about 45% above the 20,000 sales associates in a November 2007 presentation [E8]. Independent reporting also puts 2017 transaction volume at $125.4 billion across 328,355 sides (E4), and 2017 revenue rose 23% over 2016 (E6). The evidence has no 2007 revenue or sales-volume figure, but agent count, a main size measure, clears the criteria's 50% threshold.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007.” (said 2007). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_3190fd550b30, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3190fd550b30

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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