Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done.

The prediction concerns the US federal tax overhaul pursued by the Republican-controlled Congress and administration after February 2017. Judge it against the tax legislation actually enacted by the end of the 115th Congress (end of 2018), compared with the more ambitious proposals leaders had put forward or favoured (for example the House 'Better Way' blueprint, the border-adjustment tax, the full repeal or broad base-broadening measures, and the Trump campaign or administration rate proposals). TRUE: tax legislation was enacted and it was clearly less sweeping than those proposals. Examples: major elements were dropped (such as border adjustment), rate cuts were smaller or temporary, or the overhaul was scaled back. MOSTLY TRUE: legislation was enacted and was less dramatic on most major points, but it matched or went beyond the proposals on one or two notable elements. MIXED: the enacted law was about as dramatic as the leading proposals, with significant scale-backs on some parts and full delivery or more on others. MOSTLY FALSE: the enacted law delivered substantially what the leaders proposed, with only minor trimming. FALSE: the law was as dramatic as, or more dramatic than, what leaders sought. If no significant tax legislation was enacted by the end of 2018, the claim (which predicts a scaled-back package being enacted) is MOSTLY FALSE. Buffett's stated reason (time and political capital) is commentary. It does not change the verdict unless the evidence directly contradicts it.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 How The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Evolved Tax Policy Center (TaxVox, Howard Gleckman) · 1 January 2023

   “By September, Hill and White House negotiators downsized the net tax cut to about $2.4 trillion. The final bill will reduce revenue by about $1.3 trillion over the coming decade, even after including its effects on the overall economy, TPC estimates.”

2. E2 How The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Evolved Tax Policy Center (TaxVox, Howard Gleckman) · 1 January 2023

   “Neither the April outline nor the September plan ever suggested that the individual income tax changes would be temporary. Yet, the final bill eliminates nearly all its individual income tax revisions by 2026, though it retains most corporate income tax changes.”

3. E3 HR 1 Congressional Research Service (via congress.gov) · 19 December 2017

   “The bill would not include a provision limiting the share of global interest deducted by firms with foreign affiliates to 110% of their share of assets or income as proposed in the original House and Senate bills.”

4. E4 Conference Report for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 | Senate Republican Policy Committee · 18 December 2017

   “The conference report lowers the corporate income tax rate to 21 percent, effective in tax year 2018.”

The Tax Policy Center reports the net tax cut was downsized to about $2.4 trillion by September, and estimates the final bill will reduce revenue by about $1.3 trillion over the decade including its effects on the economy (E1). It also reports that the final bill made nearly all individual income tax changes expire by 2026, though neither earlier plan had proposed that (E2). CRS notes a foreign-affiliate interest limitation from the original bills was dropped (E3). However, the corporate rate was cut to 21% (E4) and the final bill retained most corporate income tax changes (E2).