By mid-2006 US new home production had risen more than speculative demand, housing starts were peaking, new home sales were flattening and price increases were slowing.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
The claim has four parts, all as of mid-2006 (around June–July 2006): (1) new home production or supply had outrun demand, shown for example by rising unsold inventory or months' supply; (2) housing starts were peaking or had peaked; (3) new home sales were flattening; and (4) house price growth was slowing. True: Census and HUD data on starts, new home sales and inventory, and OFHEO/FHFA or Case-Shiller price indices, confirm all four by mid-2006. Mostly true: all four hold in substance, with a minor discrepancy, such as sales already falling rather than flattening, or starts having peaked months earlier. Mixed: about two of the four hold. Mostly false: only one holds. False: the data show starts, sales and price growth still rising strongly in mid-2006.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN JUNE 2006 U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development · 27 July 2006
“This represents a supply of 6.1 months at the current sales rate.”
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E2 US Housing Market Conditions 2nd Quarter, 2006 - National Data U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (Office of Policy Development and Research)
“Construction starts of new housing units in the second quarter of 2006 totaled 1,878,000 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, 12 percent below the first quarter of 2006 and 9 percent below the second quarter of 2005.”
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E3 US Housing Market Conditions 2nd Quarter, 2006 - National Data U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (Office of Policy Development and Research)
“Sales of new single-family homes totaled 1,152,000 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in the second quarter of 2006, up a statistically insignificant 4 percent from the previous quarter but down a statistically insignificant 10 percent from the second quarter of 2005.”
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E4 Microsoft Word - HPI2Q06.doc (OFHEO House Price Index, 2Q 2006 release: 'House Price Appreciation Slows') Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) · 5 September 2006
“The quarterly rate reflects a sharp decline of more than one percentage point from the previous quarter and is the lowest rate of appreciation since the fourth quarter of 1999.”
Reasoning
HUD data show second-quarter 2006 housing starts 12% below the first quarter and 9% below a year earlier [E2]. That means starts had already peaked and were falling, a minor discrepancy from "becoming toppy." New single-family home sales were statistically flat: up an insignificant 4% from the previous quarter and down an insignificant 10% from a year earlier [E3]. OFHEO reported a sharp slowdown in house price appreciation in Q2 2006, the lowest quarterly rate since 1999 [E4]. The June 2006 Census release puts new-home supply at 6.1 months [E1], which suggests supply was outrunning sales, but the quote gives no earlier figure to show inventory rising, so that part is supported only in substance.
Cite this claim
Nouriel Roubini, “By mid-2006 US new home production had risen more than speculative demand, housing starts were peaking, new home sales were flattening and price increases were slowing.” (said 2009). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_e97eb0266fed, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e97eb0266fed
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
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