Stocks may enter a period like 1973-1982, when they dropped and stayed very low for a long time.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
This is a strongly hedged possibility ('might be closer to'), judged over a three-year horizon, to 2025-11-06. The benchmark is the S&P 500 level in early November 2022. True: stocks fell substantially further, at least 10% below that level, and stayed well below it, at least in real terms, for most of the three years, resembling 1973–82 stagnation. Mostly true: there was prolonged stagnation, with the index still near or below the benchmark in real terms at the horizon after a meaningful drop. Mixed: there was a significant further drop, but recovery came within roughly 1–2 years. Mostly false: there was a minor further dip, followed by a recovery above the benchmark within about a year. False: the index rose well above the benchmark and reached new all-time highs within the horizon, with no prolonged low period.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (5)
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E1 TALKING POINTS First Trust Advisors L.P. · 5 December 2022
“The S&P 500 Index (“index”) closed November 2022 at 4080.11, 14.94% below its all-time closing high of 4,796.56 on 1/3/22, according to Bloomberg.”
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E2 TALKING POINTS First Trust Advisors L.P. · 5 December 2022
“In the current bear market, the lowest closing price posted by the S&P 500 Index was 3,577.03 on 10/12/22.”
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E3 S&P 500 Returns By Year US500 (Logarithms LLC) · 2 October 2026
“| 2023 | 26.29% | 3.35% | 22.20% |”
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E4 S&P 500 Returns By Year US500 (Logarithms LLC) · 2 October 2026
“| 2024 | 25.02% | 2.89% | 21.51% |”
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E5 S&P 500 Returns By Year US500 (Logarithms LLC) · 2 October 2026
“| 2025 | 17.88% | 2.68% | 14.80% |”
Reasoning
The evidence shows strong calendar-year S&P 500 returns in 2023, 2024 and 2025 [E3][E4][E5]. It gives neither the early-November 2022 benchmark level nor the end-2022 level, so it does not establish that the index reached new all-time highs within the horizon, and it does not rule out a further dip after the benchmark date [E1][E2]. That leaves the criteria's distinction between false and the other outcomes unsettled.
Cite this claim
Nouriel Roubini, “Stocks may enter a period like 1973-1982, when they dropped and stayed very low for a long time.” (said 6 November 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_e5b4657d47c5, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e5b4657d47c5
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Nouriel Roubini
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Mostly false
“As I predicted in early September in an interview with Bloomberg”
US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023).
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Mostly false
“They are talking tough [but if] faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, they’re going to wimp out.”
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Resolved false
“So it’s much worse than the ‘70s, and it’s probably as bad as during the GFC.”
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Resolved false
“So history suggests it’s going to be near mission impossible to avoid a hard landing.”
History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy.
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Resolved false
“I’ve made the argument, and this is not the conventional wisdom, that the recession is not going to be short and shallow”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.