ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“A one year Treasury gives you roughly 4%.”

Nouriel Roubini, economist, interviewee 6 November 2022 Nouriel Roubini interview: recession, inflation, Great Depression (Fortune) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

In November 2022 a one-year US Treasury yields roughly 4%.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of early November 2022 (around 2022-11-06), using the US Treasury 1-year constant maturity yield (or the 52-week bill yield). True: the yield was about 4% (between 3.75% and 4.75%). Mostly true: between 3.5% and 3.75%, or between 4.75% and 5.0%. Mostly false: between 3.0% and 3.5%, or above 5.0% but below 5.5%. False: outside those bands.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 H.15 Selected Interest Rates, Release Date: 2022-11-08 FRED / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ALFRED), source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 7 November 2022

    “Units # of New/Revised Obs. Last Observation Percent 1 2022-11-07 4.80”

  2. E2 H.15 Selected Interest Rates, Release Date: 2022-11-08 FRED / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ALFRED), source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 7 November 2022

    “Units # of New/Revised Obs. Last Observation Percent 0 2022-11-04 4.74”

Reasoning

The evidence shows a 1-year observation of 4.74% on 2022-11-04 [E2], which is in the 'true' band, and 4.80% on 2022-11-07 [E1], which is in the 'mostly true' band. Neither item gives a value for the claim date. The criteria set no rule for choosing between these figures or averaging them, so the evidence does not settle which band applies.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “In November 2022 a one-year US Treasury yields roughly 4%.” (said 6 November 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_e3efeb07d3aa, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e3efeb07d3aa

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Nouriel Roubini

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  3. Mixed Factual 3 January 2023
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    Tech-related stocks, as long-duration assets, are hit by rising interest rates more than shorter-duration assets.

  4. Mostly false Factual 3 January 2023
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    Food prices were already spiking before the invasion because desertification in many parts of the world limits the food supply.

  5. Mostly true Factual 3 January 2023
    “All the zombie institutions that survived before because we had negative [interest] rates, quantitative easing [and] credit easing, now face rising debt servicing ratios.”

    All the zombie institutions that survived because of negative interest rates, quantitative easing and credit easing now face rising debt servicing ratios.

All of them

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