U.S. equities are a contender for the highest priced in history.

Use standard U.S. equity valuation measures (Shiller CAPE, trailing or forward P/E, price to sales, market cap to GDP, Tobin's q) as of late July 2025. True: at least one widely used measure was at a record high, or among the top two or three readings in history (for example within about 10% of the all-time peak, such as 2000), so that the market can fairly be called a contender. Mostly true: the measures are around the top 5% of history but somewhat further from the record. Mixed: one measure is near a record while most are well below their peaks. Mostly false: the measures are high but clearly below past peaks by more than about 20%. False: valuations were near or below their historical averages.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 The stock market just blew through Warren Buffett’s favorite danger signal | Fortune Fortune · 25 July 2025

   “The valuation of the Wilshire 5000—which hit a record high on July 23—is now somewhere north of 212% of U.S. GDP, the “Buffett Indicator” shows.”

2. E2 Stocks have literally never been this expensive | CNN Business CNN · 2 September 2025

   “The S&P 500 on August 12 traded at 3.25 times sales, that metric’s highest level ever, according to FactSet data.”

3. E3 Stocks have literally never been this expensive | CNN Business CNN · 2 September 2025

   “Not all metrics indicate record high valuations. The S&P 500’s forward price to earnings ratio, a popular measure of valuation, is elevated but not at all-time highs.”

The evidence shows the Buffett Indicator above 212% of GDP in late July 2025 but does not say whether that was a record or how close it was to past peaks [E1], and it shows a record price-to-sales reading only on 12 August, with no late-July reading [E2]; forward P/E was not at an all-time high [E3]. The evidence therefore does not show any standard measure at or near its record as of late July.