ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“thousands of other digital currencies have plummeted by 90-99%”

Nouriel Roubini, economist, column author 15 October 2018 The Big Blockchain Lie (Project Syndicate) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

Thousands of other digital currencies had fallen by 90-99% from their peaks as of October 2018.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 15 Oct 2018. True: data show that thousands of crypto tokens or coins (at least about 1,000–2,000) had fallen 90–99% (or more, including dead coins) from their peaks. Mostly true: the count was in the high hundreds to low thousands, or many had fallen by 80–90%, with the gist intact. Mixed: hundreds rather than thousands had such declines, or declines were typically 70–90%. Mostly false: only a small number fell 90–99% and most falls were much smaller, so the claim overstates a narrower fact. False: few cryptocurrencies had fallen that much.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (10)

  1. E1 The Rise and Fall of Cryptocurrencies Feder, Gandal, Hamrick, Moore, Vasek (Tel Aviv University / University of Tulsa / University of New Mexico working paper) · 4 June 2018

    “More than 75% of the coins declined in value. 25% of the coins lost more than 60% of their value. More than 95% of the valuations fell.”
  2. E2 Can altcoins survive $650bn of losses? MoneyWeek · 23 September 2018

    “Between them, they have lost almost 80% of their value. Within that, there have been some even more spectacular falls. Neo at one point was down by 92%. Cardano was down by 95%. XRP fell by 93% and Bitcoin Cash by 90%.”
  3. E3 As The Bitcoin Price Plummets, Its Dominance Is On The Rise Forbes · 27 November 2018

    “Bitcoin's epic bull run last year, that saw its price soar from under $1,000 at the beginning of 2017 to almost $20,000 towards the end of the year, dragged hundreds of so-called alt coins along with it—with many of them now collapsing entirely.”
  4. E4 83% of cryptocurrencies that peaked in 2018 are still down by 90% Cointelegraph · 21 January 2021

    “The data set included 410 assets that posted record prices during 2017 or later, with 2018’s 157 star coins performing the worst with an average of -90.71% since the previous ATH.”
  5. E5 The Rise and Fall of Cryptocurrencies Tel Aviv University, Berglas School of Economics (working paper by Feder, Gandal, Hamrick, Moore, Vasek) · 4 June 2018

    “Overall, we find that 44% of publicly-traded coins are abandoned, at least temporarily. 71% of abandoned coins are later resurrected, leaving 18% of coins to fail permanently.”
  6. E6 As The Bitcoin Price Plummets, Its Dominance Is On The Rise Forbes · 27 November 2018

    “Elsewhere, amongst the other top five cryptocurrencies, Ripple's XRP is off by 90% from its all-time-high, Ethereum's ether is down by 92%, bitcoin cash 95% lower, while EOS (which peaked in April this year) is down by 85%.”
  7. E7 As The Bitcoin Price Plummets, Its Dominance Is On The Rise Forbes · 27 November 2018

    “Bitcoin's epic bull run last year, that saw its price soar from under $1,000 at the beginning of 2017 to almost $20,000 towards the end of the year, dragged hundreds of so-called alt coins along with it—with many of them now collapsing entirely.”
  8. E8 CoinGecko 2018 Full Year Cryptocurrency Report CoinGecko (hosted on SlideShare) · 15 January 2019

    “Prices for most cryptoassets fell anywhere between 70% to 95% from their All-Time-High.”
  9. E9 These Are the Worst Performing Cryptocurrencies of 2018 - So Far Bitcoin.com News · 31 March 2018

    “Bitcoin Diamond: Astonishingly, someone once paid $105 for this garbage. It’s currently trading at $2.19. That’s a 98% retrace.”
  10. E10 The economic potential and risks of crypto assets Bruegel (Policy Contribution Issue n˚14) · September 2018

    “After a peak of above $800 billion (January 2018), it fell to around US$200 billion (August 2018).”

Reasoning

The evidence shows that most coins fell roughly 70–95% from their highs, but this range is measured at year-end 2018 (E9), not at 15 October. It also shows several named coins down 90% or more (E2, E7, E10). No item counts how many coins had fallen 90–99% as of 15 October 2018, so the evidence cannot say whether that was thousands or hundreds, and it cannot place the typical decline in one criterion band.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “Thousands of other digital currencies had fallen by 90-99% from their peaks as of October 2018.” (said 15 October 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d18f3aed7f4b, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d18f3aed7f4b

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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All of them

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