ClaimsRay Dalio

“We will have a downturn”

Ray Dalio, interviewed on Bloomberg 17 September 2015 Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Interview on Bloomberg (Market Folly) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

The US/global economy will have an economic downturn at some point.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

This is an open-ended prediction that an economic downturn will occur at some point after September 2015. True: a US recession, as dated by the NBER, or a clear global economic contraction (falling world real GDP or a widely recognised global recession) began after 17 September 2015. Mostly true: no formal recession occurred, but there was a clear, widely reported slowdown or contraction episode (for example, negative quarterly US GDP growth). False: there was no recession, contraction or downturn of any kind from September 2015 to the date of judgment. Mixed and mostly false do not apply beyond these cases.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (1)

  1. E1 Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) · 19 July 2021

    “The committee has determined that a trough in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in April 2020. The previous peak in economic activity occurred in February 2020.”

Reasoning

The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee found that US economic activity peaked in February 2020 and reached a trough in April 2020 (E1). That marks an NBER-dated US recession that began after 17 September 2015, which is what the criteria require for "true". The prediction had no deadline, so on_time is null.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “The US/global economy will have an economic downturn at some point.” (said 17 September 2015). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_cbb5b800a78e, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cbb5b800a78e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Ray Dalio, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Ray Dalio

  1. Mostly true Prediction 10 June 2025
    “Yeah, we're going to have about a 7% deficit as a percentage of GDP.”

    If current congressional plans go forward, the US federal deficit will be about 7% of GDP.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 25 October 2020
    “Over the next five years, you’re going to see a lot of decoupling.”

    There will be a lot of US-China decoupling over the five years following October 2020.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “I think you will see greater interest rate cuts as you start to see the world economy starting to slow down.”

    Greater interest rate cuts will occur as the world economy slows.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “In an evolutionary way, over the next one, two and three years, there will be a turn for the worse, yes.”

    Economic conditions will take a turn for the worse over the next one to three years from August 2019.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “I think that in the next two years, let's say prior to the next election, there's probably a 40 percent chance of a recession.”

    Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.