There will be a lot of US-China decoupling over the five years following October 2020.

Judged over October 2020 to October 2025. True: substantial US-China economic and technological separation occurred. This means several major measures (such as broad semiconductor and technology export controls, outbound investment restrictions, delistings or entity-list expansions, and kept or raised tariffs), together with measurable declines in interdependence. Examples are a clear fall in China's share of US imports, a decline in bilateral investment flows, and widely reported moves of supply chains out of China. Mostly true: major decoupling in technology and strategic sectors, while overall trade stayed near prior levels. Mixed: some measures were taken, but interdependence was largely unchanged overall. Mostly false: only minor or symbolic separation occurred. False: economic integration between the US and China increased, or the measures were broadly reversed.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 An Anatomy of the Great Reallocation in US Supply Chain Trade - IMF Economic Review IMF Economic Review (Springer) · 21 June 2026

   “We find that: (i) The USA has decoupled from China but not from the world overall.”

2. E2 An Anatomy of the Great Reallocation in US Supply Chain Trade - IMF Economic Review IMF Economic Review (Springer) · 21 June 2026

   “Local linear projections confirm ongoing declines in China’s import shares, with compensating increases from Vietnam, Mexico, and Taiwan.”

3. E3 An Anatomy of the Great Reallocation in US Supply Chain Trade - IMF Economic Review IMF Economic Review (Springer) · 21 June 2026

   “Together, these findings show that the US-China tariff shocks have unwound the US’ sourcing from China back to where it stood at the time of China’s WTO accession.”

4. E4 An Anatomy of the Great Reallocation in US Supply Chain Trade - IMF Economic Review IMF Economic Review (Springer) · 21 June 2026

   “For example, this has not stopped Apple from moving some iPhone production out of China into countries such as Vietnam and India.”

An independent IMF Economic Review study finds that the US has decoupled from China but not from the world overall [E1]. It reports ongoing declines in China's share of US imports as Vietnam, Mexico and Taiwan gain share [E2], and finds that US sourcing from China has unwound to its level at China's WTO accession [E3]. It also notes Apple moving some iPhone production to Vietnam and India [E4]. These are measurable declines in interdependence, but the evidence names only tariffs among the major policy measures, says nothing on export controls or investment restrictions, and does not give the exact period the data cover, so full 'true' is not established.