Economic conditions will take a turn for the worse over the next one to three years from August 2019.

Judge over the window from August 2019 to August 2022. The test is whether US or global economic conditions clearly worsened at some point in the window compared with August 2019, shown by a GDP contraction or recession, a marked rise in unemployment, or a clear slowdown in growth. The cause or speed of the deterioration does not matter. TRUE: there was a recession or clear deterioration in the US and/or global economy within the window. MOSTLY TRUE: there was a clear deterioration, but it was confined to some major economies or was shorter or milder than a recession, while still a real worsening. MIXED: indicators were split, e.g. growth slowed but unemployment did not rise. MOSTLY FALSE: there was only a marginal softening, within normal fluctuation. FALSE: economic conditions held steady or improved throughout the window.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 World Economic Outlook, Glommy and More Uncertain, July ... - IMF International Monetary Fund · July 2022

   “Performance was slightly better than expected in the first quarter, but world real GDP is estimated to have shrunk in the second quarter—the first contraction since 2020—owing to economic downturns in China and Russia.”

2. E2 World Economic Outlook, Glommy and More Uncertain, July ... - IMF International Monetary Fund · July 2022

   “For the United States, some indicators, such as the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecasting model, suggest that a technical recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth) may already have started.”

3. E3 World Economic Outlook, Glommy and More Uncertain, July ... - IMF International Monetary Fund · July 2022

   “Baseline growth in the United States is revised down by 1.4 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points in 2022 and 2023, respectively, reflecting weaker-than-expected growth in the first two quarters of 2022”

4. E4 World Economic Outlook, Glommy and More Uncertain, July ... - IMF International Monetary Fund · July 2022

   “The baseline forecast is for growth to slow from 6.1 percent last year to 3.2 percent in 2022, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April 2022 World Economic Outlook.”

The IMF's July 2022 update says world real GDP is estimated to have shrunk in Q2 2022, which it calls "the first contraction since 2020" (E1). That wording also points to a contraction in 2020, which falls inside the window. The same update says the US may already have entered a technical recession (E2). It also cut US growth forecasts because of weak first-half 2022 growth (E3) and forecasts global growth slowing from 6.1% to 3.2% (E4). Together, these independent sources show GDP contractions and a clear slowdown in growth during August 2019 to August 2022, which meets the TRUE criterion.