Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election.

This is a probabilistic forecast that a US recession had about a 40% chance of starting between August 2019 and the November 3, 2020 election. Resolve on whether a US recession began in that window, as dated by the NBER (peak between August 2019 and November 3, 2020). True: such a recession began, because the elevated risk he flagged materialised. Mixed: no recession began, since he rated that outcome as somewhat more likely (60%) but still flagged an elevated risk that did not materialise. True, mixed and these two cases are the only verdicts that apply.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement June 8, 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) · 8 June 2020

   “The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession.”

The criteria say the claim resolves true if the NBER dated a US recession peak between August 2019 and November 3, 2020. NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee announced that the economy peaked in February 2020, which marks the start of a recession (E1). That date falls inside the window, so the risk Dalio flagged came about.