In a typical short and shallow recession the S&P 500 usually falls by at least 30%.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2022-11-06, against the historical record of S&P 500 peak-to-trough declines around US recessions (NBER-dated). The claim is that in a typical mild recession the index usually falls at least 30%; it is hedged ('usually'). True: most post-war mild or short recessions saw S&P 500 drawdowns of about 30% or more (allow about 27%). Mostly true: the median or typical drawdown in such recessions is about 25–30%. Mixed: about half of the mild recessions reached about 30% and half did not, or the typical figure is about 20–25%. Mostly false: the typical drawdown in mild recessions was clearly below 30% (about 15–20%), with only some cases reaching it. False: drawdowns in mild recessions were typically well under 20%.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Some Thoughts on Bear Markets and Recessions T. Rowe Price · June 2022
“median peak to trough decline in the S&P 500 has been 24%.”
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E2 TD Economics - TD Financial Stress Monitor TD Economics · 30 October 2020
“In the post-WWII time period, the average S&P 500 Index decline during recession was 29.5%.”
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E3 The S&P 500 may rise less than expected as GDP growth slows Goldman Sachs · 26 March 2025
“During 12 economic downturns since World War II, the S&P 500 typically declined by 24% from its peak, while earnings dropped by 13% (median peak-to-trough).”
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E4 CLIENT RESOURCE KIT First Trust Portfolios
“Average Drawdown: -30.6%”
Reasoning
E1 and E3 put the median S&P 500 peak-to-trough decline at 24% across all post-war recessions, and E3 bases this on 12 downturns. A median of 24% means about half of the recessions saw declines of 24% or less, below 30%. E2 (29.5%) and E4 (-30.6%) give average declines near 30%, but averages can be pulled up by deep downturns, and none of the sources separates out mild recessions. Since the typical (median) figure is about 24%, which is in the criteria's 20–25% band, the claim that mild recessions usually bring declines of at least 30% resolves as mixed.
Cite this claim
Nouriel Roubini, “In a typical short and shallow recession the S&P 500 usually falls by at least 30%.” (said 6 November 2022). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_c9a002ee1a03, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c9a002ee1a03
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.