ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“If you’re a foreigner and buying in dollars, you’re going to have a capital loss on the currency.”

Nouriel Roubini, interviewed in New York Magazine 25 September 2006 The Coming Housing and Economic Crash: My Interview Today with New York Magazine (EconoMonitor) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Foreign buyers purchasing US property in dollars will suffer currency capital losses as the dollar weakens against the euro and other currencies.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

Horizon: about three years after September 2006 (to September 2009), the same window as the speaker's other housing forecasts. True: the US dollar was clearly weaker at the horizon than in September 2006, both against the euro (EUR/USD higher by about 5% or more) and on a broad trade-weighted measure (Fed broad dollar index lower). This means a foreign buyer converting dollar assets back would face a currency loss. Mostly true: the dollar fell clearly against the euro but only slightly on the broad index, or the reverse. Mixed: the dollar fell against the euro but rose on the broad index, or the reverse, or the change at the horizon was near zero after a large swing in between. Mostly false: the dollar was roughly unchanged (within about 2–3%). False: the dollar was clearly stronger against both the euro and the broad basket at the horizon.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (7)

  1. E1 Broad Dollar Federal Reserve Board (H.10 release summary)

    “SEP 2006 95.7834”

  2. E2 Broad Dollar Federal Reserve Board (H.10 release summary)

    “SEP 2009 88.8985”

  3. E3 g5.txt Federal Reserve Board (G.5 Foreign Exchange Rates release) · 1 October 2009

    “*EMU MEMBERS EURO 1.4575 1.4266 1.4092 1.4342”

  4. E4 (none) Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.10 release summary, Price-adjusted Broad Dollar Index)

    “SEP 2009 88.8985”

  5. E5 (none) Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.10 release summary, Price-adjusted Broad Dollar Index)

    “SEP 2006 95.7834”

  6. E6 Table Data - Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), hosted by FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

    “| 2006-09-25 | 97.9909 |”

  7. E7 Table Data - Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), hosted by FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

    “| 2009-09-25 | 93.5535 |”

Reasoning

The Fed's price-adjusted broad dollar index fell from 95.7834 in September 2006 to 88.8985 in September 2009, a drop of about 7% [E1, E2]. FRED's nominal broad index also fell, from 97.9909 on 2006-09-25 to 93.5535 on 2009-09-25 [E6, E7]. So the broad-index condition is met. The criteria also require the dollar to have fallen against the euro. E3 gives euro rates of about 1.41–1.46 in the 1 October 2009 G.5 release, but its columns are unlabelled and no evidence gives a September 2006 EUR/USD baseline. Without that, the euro condition can't be checked, so the evidence doesn't settle whether the verdict is true, mostly true or mixed.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “Foreign buyers purchasing US property in dollars will suffer currency capital losses as the dollar weakens against the euro and other currencies.” (said 25 September 2006). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_c54d01a189cf, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c54d01a189cf

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Nouriel Roubini

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  2. Mostly false Prediction 3 January 2023
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    Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
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    The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
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    History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy.

  5. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “I’ve made the argument, and this is not the conventional wisdom, that the recession is not going to be short and shallow”

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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.