The bulk of the losses in Lebanese 'lollar' deposits is interest not earned at all (and interest on interest).

Judged as of 2020-12-15. The claim is that the majority (over half) of the nominal 'losses' on Lebanese dollar deposits ('lollars') reflects accrued interest (including compounded interest) that was never actually earned or backed, not lost principal. True: credible analyses (e.g. Lazard/government recovery plan, IMF, academic or bank-sector studies) show that more than half of the deposit gap or deposit growth was due to interest credited (including high engineered rates), not to new principal deposited. Mostly true: interest makes up a large share, near half, or most of a gap measured slightly differently. Mixed: estimates vary widely around half, or interest is a major but clearly minority share in some credible estimates and majority in others. Mostly false: interest is a significant but minority component. False: losses are overwhelmingly principal, and interest is a small share.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Lebanon: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release International Monetary Fund · October 2019

   “Excluding accrued interest, deposit growth is estimated to have been slightly negative last year.”

2. E2 Lebanon: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lebanon International Monetary Fund · 29 June 2023

   “Staff estimate that the interest amount over the LIBOR rate during 2015–21 could amount to about US$15 bn, while total interest earnings during that period were about US$26 bn.”

3. E3 Lebanon: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lebanon International Monetary Fund · 2023

   “Staff estimate that the interest amount over the LIBOR rate during 2015–21 could amount to about US$15 bn, while total interest earnings during that period were about US$26 bn.”

4. E4 Lebanon: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lebanon International Monetary Fund · 2023

   “In particular, the continued financing of subsidized imports and government spending at preferential exchange rates together with BdL’s interventions to prop up the exchange rate led to a large decline in the recoverable deposits.”

5. E5 Lebanon: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lebanon International Monetary Fund · 2023

   “The decline in the banks’ FX loan book also results in a loss to depositors and a transfer of wealth to borrowers.”

6. E6 One of the more interesting parts of the recent IMF's Lebanon BLOMINVEST BANK · 14 July 2023

   “and as such the estimate for the interest amount over the LIBOR rate during 2015–21 is put at about $15 billion.”

7. E7 One of the more interesting parts of the recent IMF's Lebanon BLOMINVEST BANK · 14 July 2023

   “It follows, then, that deposits written off would be $59 billion, which is the difference between total deposits at $92.2 billion and protected deposits at $33.2 billion.”

8. E8 Is the banking sector in Lebanon Salvageable copy Suliman S. Olayan School of Business, American University of Beirut (Faour, Geadah, Jamali) · October 2025

   “Excess interest that was paid since 2015 would be lirafied at a rate of LBP 1,500 per USD, which was estimated to yield USD 12 billion.”

The evidence gives interest estimates for 2015–21 (about US$26bn total, US$15bn above LIBOR; E2, E7) and a separate US$59bn write-off figure (E8), but no source splits the deposit loss or deposit gap into interest and principal. E1 covers deposit growth for a single year only, so the evidence does not establish whether interest is a majority or minority of the losses.